Friday 25 March 2011
How to Reduce the Future Aftereffects of a Deadly Earthquake
By Mark W. Medley
The last two years has seen an increase in more deadly earthquakes, which have struck Chile, China, Haiti, Indonesia, and Pakistan, often with deadly effects. Living in a new era of deadlier quakes, and increased seismic activity, how can we reduce the deadlier aftereffects of an Earthquake?
Some Countries are in the quake zone, notably Chile, Haiti and Indonesia. A Zone which lays far beneath our oceans and land masses, which spread across all our continents. In Indonesia, quakes are a regular occurrence, often on a daily basis, whilst in other regions rarer.
Recent Earthquakes in Chile and Haiti, have created some startling but very real discussion on how we can reduce the deadlier aftereffects of a quake. As the death toll, and damage in both countries are remarkably different. Haiti, has a history of Earthquakes, and the recent quake which devastated Port au Prince, the nations capital, created huge damage, and death tolls. This to many experts was a natural disaster, which turned into a man-made disaster.
There is a link between poverty, lack of urban planning, and the extent the disaster can hurt a country. In Japan, a nation known for Earthquakes and Tsunamis, damage and deaths from a quake, are minimal zed by planning around the possibility of a future earthquake.
The disaster in Haiti, was caused by the fact the country was too poor, to implement the same planning as Japan. Neither could lives be saved, because local emergency services were overwhelmed by the extent of the earthquake. It turned into a man-made disaster.
Chile has coped better, because of epicenter of the quake was away from the center of a city, and the country had a much more developed infrastructure, with more modern emergency services. The quake was more spread out, but the death toll less. Nations which are part of the quake zone, however poor or wealthy, need to accept that one day a quake will occur. This is natural, and part of the way our planet has evolved.
One way we could help these nations which live in the reality that there is always a chance a deadly quake could strike, is to assist in helping these nations create a system, which minimizes the man-made effects after an earthquake has struck.
Buildings could be either strengthened or relocated in areas where a risk of an earthquake is lessened- in poorer countries, cheaper, but effective building designs could be created, which could at least withstand the worse effects of an earthquake.
We do have the technology, and the expertise to create more effective, and low cost solutions to protecting areas, which are susceptible to earthquakes. But this takes cooperation, and a sharing of ideas, rather then sending short-term aid and assistance.
Through International cooperation, nations in the deadly quake zone, could build a basic emergency procedure network. Which today, has helped to create the Tsunami warning system, after the deadly 2004 Tsunami in Asia, and trained local response teams to deal with the after effects of a tsunami.
Chile, China, Indonesia, and Japan could spearhead this International cooperation, as they themselves are countries which have recently experienced earthquakes. Using the technology, and localized experience of dealing with the human cost of a quake, may create groundbreaking solutions to reducing the disastrous after effects of any future quake.
The last two years has seen an increase in more deadly earthquakes, which have struck Chile, China, Haiti, Indonesia, and Pakistan, often with deadly effects. Living in a new era of deadlier quakes, and increased seismic activity, how can we reduce the deadlier aftereffects of an Earthquake?
Some Countries are in the quake zone, notably Chile, Haiti and Indonesia. A Zone which lays far beneath our oceans and land masses, which spread across all our continents. In Indonesia, quakes are a regular occurrence, often on a daily basis, whilst in other regions rarer.
Recent Earthquakes in Chile and Haiti, have created some startling but very real discussion on how we can reduce the deadlier aftereffects of a quake. As the death toll, and damage in both countries are remarkably different. Haiti, has a history of Earthquakes, and the recent quake which devastated Port au Prince, the nations capital, created huge damage, and death tolls. This to many experts was a natural disaster, which turned into a man-made disaster.
There is a link between poverty, lack of urban planning, and the extent the disaster can hurt a country. In Japan, a nation known for Earthquakes and Tsunamis, damage and deaths from a quake, are minimal zed by planning around the possibility of a future earthquake.
The disaster in Haiti, was caused by the fact the country was too poor, to implement the same planning as Japan. Neither could lives be saved, because local emergency services were overwhelmed by the extent of the earthquake. It turned into a man-made disaster.
Chile has coped better, because of epicenter of the quake was away from the center of a city, and the country had a much more developed infrastructure, with more modern emergency services. The quake was more spread out, but the death toll less. Nations which are part of the quake zone, however poor or wealthy, need to accept that one day a quake will occur. This is natural, and part of the way our planet has evolved.
One way we could help these nations which live in the reality that there is always a chance a deadly quake could strike, is to assist in helping these nations create a system, which minimizes the man-made effects after an earthquake has struck.
Buildings could be either strengthened or relocated in areas where a risk of an earthquake is lessened- in poorer countries, cheaper, but effective building designs could be created, which could at least withstand the worse effects of an earthquake.
We do have the technology, and the expertise to create more effective, and low cost solutions to protecting areas, which are susceptible to earthquakes. But this takes cooperation, and a sharing of ideas, rather then sending short-term aid and assistance.
Through International cooperation, nations in the deadly quake zone, could build a basic emergency procedure network. Which today, has helped to create the Tsunami warning system, after the deadly 2004 Tsunami in Asia, and trained local response teams to deal with the after effects of a tsunami.
Chile, China, Indonesia, and Japan could spearhead this International cooperation, as they themselves are countries which have recently experienced earthquakes. Using the technology, and localized experience of dealing with the human cost of a quake, may create groundbreaking solutions to reducing the disastrous after effects of any future quake.
The Economic Effect of Japan's Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Disaster
By Mark W. Medley
On Friday, March 11, 2011 at 2:46 pm, a 9.2 earthquake struck off the coast of Japan. This lead to a chain reaction of events leading to a tsunami, and a nuclear disaster as one of Japan's power stations leaked radiation. What are the global effects of these three disasters?
1. Higher Energy Prices
Energy prices are soaring because of the fear that the current unrest in the Middle East is affecting the global supply of oil. The disaster in the Fukusima power station highlights the need for Japan to now import traditional energy sources to replace any energy produced through its nuclear facilities- which will add to more demand for natural gas, and oil.
2. Infrastructural Renewal Projects
Both the earthquake and the tsunami have badly damaged much of Japan's infrastructure. Obviously a rebuilding phase would mean a government with a high debt problem, would have to invest in the reconstruction of those areas affected by this triple disaster. This could become the responsibility of the corporate sector, who dominate Japan's economy.
3. Banking and Insurance Losses
Whether Insurance companies pay out billions of dollars of claims due to the the earthquake and tsunami, remains to be seen, but the "man-made" nuclear disaster could become their liability. Japan's global banking and insurance industries may be forced to reinvest at home, depleting any global investments outside the nation.
4. Change of Government?
Before these three disasters, ordinary Japanese had lost their confidence in another scandal hit government. How the government reaction to these three disasters, and the subsequent rebuilding process, could change the public perceptions of their leaders- but in the long term, we could see more changes inside the top echelon of the Japanese government.
5. Environmental Perceptions
After the nuclear disaster in Fukusima, many people are questioning the wisdom of building nuclear energy plants in a quake zone. Depending on the radiation levels, and the area contaminated, a worldwide reaction to the use of nuclear energy could result in the ending of the Obama nuclear energy program in the USA, and even France's ambitious energy program.
6. Money Markets
Japan remains the worlds third largest economy, but also like the United States, one of its biggest debtors. The value of the yen could fall, as banks spend on reconstruction projects, whilst the Government may be forced to raise taxes to pay for them. Some large Japanese corporations may cancel or put on hold overseas projects, re-investing these funds in rebuilding the areas affected by the earthquake.
7. Asian-Pacific Growth
China has the money and the economy in this region, but Japan is a second player in economic terms. Japanese companies invest in much of South East and North Asia, whilst the government often sponsor education & training programs in the region. Japan's contributions in the area, could shrink, leading to some fears of reduced growth.
The natural disasters of the earthquake and tsunami, have led to the man made nuclear disaster, and destruction of part of a high tech nation.. Japanese are resilient, inventive and industrious people, and should overcome the hurdles of reconstruction. However this does have a short term effect on the global economy, and a long term effect on the future of the nuclear power industry.
1. Higher Energy Prices
Energy prices are soaring because of the fear that the current unrest in the Middle East is affecting the global supply of oil. The disaster in the Fukusima power station highlights the need for Japan to now import traditional energy sources to replace any energy produced through its nuclear facilities- which will add to more demand for natural gas, and oil.
2. Infrastructural Renewal Projects
Both the earthquake and the tsunami have badly damaged much of Japan's infrastructure. Obviously a rebuilding phase would mean a government with a high debt problem, would have to invest in the reconstruction of those areas affected by this triple disaster. This could become the responsibility of the corporate sector, who dominate Japan's economy.
3. Banking and Insurance Losses
Whether Insurance companies pay out billions of dollars of claims due to the the earthquake and tsunami, remains to be seen, but the "man-made" nuclear disaster could become their liability. Japan's global banking and insurance industries may be forced to reinvest at home, depleting any global investments outside the nation.
4. Change of Government?
Before these three disasters, ordinary Japanese had lost their confidence in another scandal hit government. How the government reaction to these three disasters, and the subsequent rebuilding process, could change the public perceptions of their leaders- but in the long term, we could see more changes inside the top echelon of the Japanese government.
5. Environmental Perceptions
After the nuclear disaster in Fukusima, many people are questioning the wisdom of building nuclear energy plants in a quake zone. Depending on the radiation levels, and the area contaminated, a worldwide reaction to the use of nuclear energy could result in the ending of the Obama nuclear energy program in the USA, and even France's ambitious energy program.
6. Money Markets
Japan remains the worlds third largest economy, but also like the United States, one of its biggest debtors. The value of the yen could fall, as banks spend on reconstruction projects, whilst the Government may be forced to raise taxes to pay for them. Some large Japanese corporations may cancel or put on hold overseas projects, re-investing these funds in rebuilding the areas affected by the earthquake.
7. Asian-Pacific Growth
China has the money and the economy in this region, but Japan is a second player in economic terms. Japanese companies invest in much of South East and North Asia, whilst the government often sponsor education & training programs in the region. Japan's contributions in the area, could shrink, leading to some fears of reduced growth.
The natural disasters of the earthquake and tsunami, have led to the man made nuclear disaster, and destruction of part of a high tech nation.. Japanese are resilient, inventive and industrious people, and should overcome the hurdles of reconstruction. However this does have a short term effect on the global economy, and a long term effect on the future of the nuclear power industry.
Which Natural Hazards Present A Higher Risk: Earthquakes Or Volcanoes?
By Hannah Fogster
I've always been fascinated by natural hazards and therefore I decided to write this article on the subject.
There are many different factors which influence the magnitude and the frequency of either an earthquake or a volcanic eruption. But apart from this there are some major differences between earthquakes and volcanoes. Earthquakes for example are found on conservative plate boundaries, e.g. the San Andreas Fault in California. Whereas volcanoes are located on destructive or constructive plate boundaries, for example Mt. St. Helens or Heimaey in Iceland. But they can also be created on a hot spot, places that have fierce heat in the mantle; Hawaii is located on such a hot spot.
Furthermore you need to focus on primary and secondary effects which are different in volcanoes and earthquakes. Primary effects of volcanoes are for example lava flows, ash clouds, ash bombs and pyroclastic flows, whereas earthquakes only have one primary effect which is the tremor.
But the secondary effects are much more vigorous with an earthquake, like tsunamis where flooding causes disease, or it could result in massive landslides as a consequence of the eruption. The most common secondary effect of earthquakes is fire which can cause both high economic and high social loss. The secondary effects of volcanic eruptions are mudflows or sometimes landslides.
How much a country or population is affected depends mainly on three factors: the magnitude and frequency of the hazard, the population density which determines exposure and the ability to minimise the damage. Levels of development, education, technology and resources all influence the vulnerability of the location. But also the risk has to be reviewed towards social, economic and environmental impact and the effects on global warming. Long term and short term consequences have to be considered.
For the people concerned it does not make much of a difference which hazard destroys their lives. They constantly have to live with this threat. Most of them don't have enough money to move away to protect themselves and their families. In most cases there is no way to solve this dilemma and people have to accept this 'catch-22.'
I've always been fascinated by natural hazards and therefore I decided to write this article on the subject.
There are many different factors which influence the magnitude and the frequency of either an earthquake or a volcanic eruption. But apart from this there are some major differences between earthquakes and volcanoes. Earthquakes for example are found on conservative plate boundaries, e.g. the San Andreas Fault in California. Whereas volcanoes are located on destructive or constructive plate boundaries, for example Mt. St. Helens or Heimaey in Iceland. But they can also be created on a hot spot, places that have fierce heat in the mantle; Hawaii is located on such a hot spot.
Furthermore you need to focus on primary and secondary effects which are different in volcanoes and earthquakes. Primary effects of volcanoes are for example lava flows, ash clouds, ash bombs and pyroclastic flows, whereas earthquakes only have one primary effect which is the tremor.
But the secondary effects are much more vigorous with an earthquake, like tsunamis where flooding causes disease, or it could result in massive landslides as a consequence of the eruption. The most common secondary effect of earthquakes is fire which can cause both high economic and high social loss. The secondary effects of volcanic eruptions are mudflows or sometimes landslides.
How much a country or population is affected depends mainly on three factors: the magnitude and frequency of the hazard, the population density which determines exposure and the ability to minimise the damage. Levels of development, education, technology and resources all influence the vulnerability of the location. But also the risk has to be reviewed towards social, economic and environmental impact and the effects on global warming. Long term and short term consequences have to be considered.
For the people concerned it does not make much of a difference which hazard destroys their lives. They constantly have to live with this threat. Most of them don't have enough money to move away to protect themselves and their families. In most cases there is no way to solve this dilemma and people have to accept this 'catch-22.'
Dealing With Emotional Impacts From Major Earthquakes
By Joy Tsai Yuan Hung
Here in San Diego we recently felt the effects of a major earthquake nearby in Baja California. I am struck by the different reactions of people around me, ranging from excitement, curiosity, disbelief, to fearful, anxious, shaken up, and traumatized. All these emotions are different but adaptive ways that people use to deal with a big natural or disaster event which we can not control.
Earthquakes can be triggers for people emotionally because they are unpredictable, dangerous, and may cause substantial damage to our lives. They also bring up intense fear that we could die or that we might lose our loved ones. Some people may feel re-traumatized if they have had a past experience with earthquake that brought about serious physical or emotional damages to themselves or people close to them. After a big earthquake, people may feel stressed, not able to relax, excessively worried, afraid of being alone, irritable, fear of separation or abandonment, and helplessness.
People may feel vulnerable and out of control, but there are things one can do to be more prepared for the next earthquake and to feel empowered by being proactive. Things such as discussing disaster plan with family members and restocking disaster supplies. This may also be a great time to reconnect and spend time with family, friends and those important to us. Events like earthquakes that threatened physical or emotional safety may also bring about deeper exploration about how each of us chooses to live our lives, and urge us to contemplate the meaning of our existence.
Talking about difficult feelings and acknowledging them are extremely helpful in dealing with traumatic experience. All feelings and different ways of coping are accepted and seen as normal reactions after stress events. When feelings become too overwhelming or begin to interfere with our daily functioning, seeking professional help from a therapist may help people manage difficulties associated with trauma or shocks.
Therapy may help people become less anxious or fearful about the future. Furthermore, a therapist may help people who are ready to explore their existential meaning to rethink what they need to do to live fuller lives.
Earthquakes can be triggers for people emotionally because they are unpredictable, dangerous, and may cause substantial damage to our lives. They also bring up intense fear that we could die or that we might lose our loved ones. Some people may feel re-traumatized if they have had a past experience with earthquake that brought about serious physical or emotional damages to themselves or people close to them. After a big earthquake, people may feel stressed, not able to relax, excessively worried, afraid of being alone, irritable, fear of separation or abandonment, and helplessness.
People may feel vulnerable and out of control, but there are things one can do to be more prepared for the next earthquake and to feel empowered by being proactive. Things such as discussing disaster plan with family members and restocking disaster supplies. This may also be a great time to reconnect and spend time with family, friends and those important to us. Events like earthquakes that threatened physical or emotional safety may also bring about deeper exploration about how each of us chooses to live our lives, and urge us to contemplate the meaning of our existence.
Talking about difficult feelings and acknowledging them are extremely helpful in dealing with traumatic experience. All feelings and different ways of coping are accepted and seen as normal reactions after stress events. When feelings become too overwhelming or begin to interfere with our daily functioning, seeking professional help from a therapist may help people manage difficulties associated with trauma or shocks.
Therapy may help people become less anxious or fearful about the future. Furthermore, a therapist may help people who are ready to explore their existential meaning to rethink what they need to do to live fuller lives.
What To Do When Tsunami Attacks?
By Ramir Sarmiento
Year 2004 was an unforgettable year for Southeast Asian citizens. A very powerful tidal wave hit certain areas that resulted from destruction and left awful scenarios for the casualties. Over 200,000 people died in just a moment and unfortunately some bodies were never recovered and identified.
This is just one of the many recorded tsunami attacks from recent years and even centuries. It happened not just in the vicinities of the Pacific, but also in Indian and Atlantic Ocean, which brought up many into worry.
Way back 1600 B.C., until the recent happening in the island of Indonesia where more than 600 people were killed, tsunami has just brought up many people's lives into pain and suffering.
When an underground earthquake caused by plate collisions occurs in a certain area, a warning will be sent out to coastal teams as the possibilities of having tsunami is big. Warnings are sent out to any local authorities to inform civilians.
Tsunami attacks cannot be predicted up to what specific place. But since the Pacific area is known as the world's rim of fire, there is a bigger chance that tsunami can strike next to countries around it, which makes these countries conduct several preparations in case such awful disaster happens.
The main problem associated with some countries that suffered much is that they don't plan ahead of time. Tsunami can be unpredictable sometimes but the fact that these countries are near to coastal areas and places, which are prone to big tidal waves, should be a hint for them to prepare.
There should be a system that will effectively warn everybody to prepare for the coming tsunami. This alert system, which composes of information, watch, advisory, and warning, should be implemented.
Once an underground earthquake is detected, a firm called Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii will send out information to the countries along the area.
Although the specific place of impact is not yet clearly identified, they will still send out advisory to the possible regions that might be attacked by the tsunami.
It may take hours for the effects of the underground earthquake to happen but this signals everyone that there's a possibility for a tsunami to attack. With this, people along the coastal areas must watch over the water movement.
If something unusual is seen and there is water withdraw, then an immediate evacuation should take place.
One signal to inform everyone of the evacuation is via siren. The siren will start to sound at interval times three hours to half an hour before tsunami impacts.
By this time, everyone should begin packing and evacuating. One safe place is to go to higher grounds far from the danger zone. There should be emergency kits along with you once you packed out.
These include: food, water and clothing. Radio, as well, is important for you to know if it is safe already to go down.
People should watch out for further news about tsunami. If nothing happened, it is always safe to take consultation to the authorities and make sure that it is already safe to go back.
Coordination is one important thing that everyone, especially those near to tsunami-prone regions, should have. It is always better to be safe than sorry. Devastated structures and properties can still be replaced but a life cannot be returned.
This is just one of the many recorded tsunami attacks from recent years and even centuries. It happened not just in the vicinities of the Pacific, but also in Indian and Atlantic Ocean, which brought up many into worry.
Way back 1600 B.C., until the recent happening in the island of Indonesia where more than 600 people were killed, tsunami has just brought up many people's lives into pain and suffering.
When an underground earthquake caused by plate collisions occurs in a certain area, a warning will be sent out to coastal teams as the possibilities of having tsunami is big. Warnings are sent out to any local authorities to inform civilians.
Tsunami attacks cannot be predicted up to what specific place. But since the Pacific area is known as the world's rim of fire, there is a bigger chance that tsunami can strike next to countries around it, which makes these countries conduct several preparations in case such awful disaster happens.
The main problem associated with some countries that suffered much is that they don't plan ahead of time. Tsunami can be unpredictable sometimes but the fact that these countries are near to coastal areas and places, which are prone to big tidal waves, should be a hint for them to prepare.
There should be a system that will effectively warn everybody to prepare for the coming tsunami. This alert system, which composes of information, watch, advisory, and warning, should be implemented.
Once an underground earthquake is detected, a firm called Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii will send out information to the countries along the area.
Although the specific place of impact is not yet clearly identified, they will still send out advisory to the possible regions that might be attacked by the tsunami.
It may take hours for the effects of the underground earthquake to happen but this signals everyone that there's a possibility for a tsunami to attack. With this, people along the coastal areas must watch over the water movement.
If something unusual is seen and there is water withdraw, then an immediate evacuation should take place.
One signal to inform everyone of the evacuation is via siren. The siren will start to sound at interval times three hours to half an hour before tsunami impacts.
By this time, everyone should begin packing and evacuating. One safe place is to go to higher grounds far from the danger zone. There should be emergency kits along with you once you packed out.
These include: food, water and clothing. Radio, as well, is important for you to know if it is safe already to go down.
People should watch out for further news about tsunami. If nothing happened, it is always safe to take consultation to the authorities and make sure that it is already safe to go back.
Coordination is one important thing that everyone, especially those near to tsunami-prone regions, should have. It is always better to be safe than sorry. Devastated structures and properties can still be replaced but a life cannot be returned.
Surviving A Tsunami - Tips To Prepare For A Tsunami Alert
By Abhishek Agarwal
Until December 2004, most of us thought of tsunamis as the makings of a good disaster movie, if we knew what "tsunami" meant at all. But with the awful devastation of 2004, we realized how much damage a tsunami can do.
What a Tsunami Is
Tsunamis are not large tropical storms caused by high winds. They are the result of undersea geological events like volcanoes, landslides, or earthquakes that occur with massive tectonic displacements. Earthquakes that reach 6.5 or above (Richter scale) can produce devastating waves that move at up to 300 miles per hour, reach heights of 100 feet, and last from several minutes to several hours from first wave to last surge.
In the open sea, the tsunami may not be noticeable, but when they enter shallower waters, the begins to "pile up" on itself, creating a massive wave that can destroy tall buildings and even travel inland for miles with great power.
Where Tsunamis Strike
Coastal areas in the Pacific Ocean basin are the most frequent targets of tsunamis, reflecting the greater vulnerability related to the famous "Ring of Fire" where tectonic plates meet to form a great circle on the sea floor. Japan has experienced many tsunamis. In fact, tsunami is a Japanese word. They've also hit Alaska and Hawaii in the Pacific Basin and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in the Atlantic basin.
The Indian Ocean area has experienced many tsunamis as well, the 2004 tsunami taking more than 250,000 lives and destroying billions of dollars in property.
Preparing for a Tsunami Emergency
If you are in the water and feel a strong earthquake, leave the water immediately, getting as far from the beach as you can. Try to go to high ground, or go inland as far as possible if the ground near you is flat.
If you can see the incoming wave, you can't escape it. You simply don't have time. The best thing to do in that case is to get as high as you can as quickly as you can.
If you sense a strong earthquake and you are not at the beach, tune your radio to a local station that broadcasts during emergencies. They will notify the public in case a tsunami watch or warning has been issued, and they will let you know where emergency relief centers are.
At this point, you should know where your family members are. Make sure everyone knows about the alert. You should have an agreed-upon meeting place in case you're not all in the same place when the emergency is announced. Your meeting location should be as far from the shore as possible but not so far that people can't get to it in time.
Be sure to prepare for family members with special needs. If your family includes elderly, ill, or small children, be prepared to have help for them or try to evacuate them early. You may also want to prepare to evacuate your pets as well, bringing emergency food and water for them.
You should have prepared emergency supplies in your home. Bring them with you when you evacuate. At least take fresh water, some food, and extra clothing. Most important, have a first aid kit in case of injuries.
If you have time, you might try to secure your house, but not at the risk of your own life. There is little you can do to protect your possessions from an incoming tsunami, so focus on saving lives first.
Tsunami Watch or Tsunami Warning
The two terms have important different meanings. When authorities issue a tsunami watch, it means that a tsunami is possible, but no one has reported seeing one or a sighting hasn't been verified yet. A watch may include estimates for when and where a tsunami may strike.
When they issue a tsunami warning, it means that a tsunami has been reported and confirmed. By the time they issue the warning, the tsunami could be close. The warning will also let you know where to expect it to strike and when.
During the Wave
If you are unfortunate enough to find yourself at the mercy of an incoming tsunami, climb onto a rooftop or the highest point you can reach. The more stable the building, the safer the support will be. But get as high as you can no matter what. Hold on as tight as you can to any stable and heavy object available. If you must, climb a tree.
If you've already been overtaken by the water, grab something floating that's large enough to support you and hold onto it until you can find stable ground or get help. Grab anything that seems firm and try to get out of the water. The current will be strong, and you could be hurt by debris in the water. If you can get any part of your body out of the water, do so.
You have to accept that tsunamis, like most natural disasters, are uncontrollable. You will have the earthquake warning to give you time to escape.
Until December 2004, most of us thought of tsunamis as the makings of a good disaster movie, if we knew what "tsunami" meant at all. But with the awful devastation of 2004, we realized how much damage a tsunami can do.
What a Tsunami Is
Tsunamis are not large tropical storms caused by high winds. They are the result of undersea geological events like volcanoes, landslides, or earthquakes that occur with massive tectonic displacements. Earthquakes that reach 6.5 or above (Richter scale) can produce devastating waves that move at up to 300 miles per hour, reach heights of 100 feet, and last from several minutes to several hours from first wave to last surge.
In the open sea, the tsunami may not be noticeable, but when they enter shallower waters, the begins to "pile up" on itself, creating a massive wave that can destroy tall buildings and even travel inland for miles with great power.
Where Tsunamis Strike
Coastal areas in the Pacific Ocean basin are the most frequent targets of tsunamis, reflecting the greater vulnerability related to the famous "Ring of Fire" where tectonic plates meet to form a great circle on the sea floor. Japan has experienced many tsunamis. In fact, tsunami is a Japanese word. They've also hit Alaska and Hawaii in the Pacific Basin and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in the Atlantic basin.
The Indian Ocean area has experienced many tsunamis as well, the 2004 tsunami taking more than 250,000 lives and destroying billions of dollars in property.
Preparing for a Tsunami Emergency
If you are in the water and feel a strong earthquake, leave the water immediately, getting as far from the beach as you can. Try to go to high ground, or go inland as far as possible if the ground near you is flat.
If you can see the incoming wave, you can't escape it. You simply don't have time. The best thing to do in that case is to get as high as you can as quickly as you can.
If you sense a strong earthquake and you are not at the beach, tune your radio to a local station that broadcasts during emergencies. They will notify the public in case a tsunami watch or warning has been issued, and they will let you know where emergency relief centers are.
At this point, you should know where your family members are. Make sure everyone knows about the alert. You should have an agreed-upon meeting place in case you're not all in the same place when the emergency is announced. Your meeting location should be as far from the shore as possible but not so far that people can't get to it in time.
Be sure to prepare for family members with special needs. If your family includes elderly, ill, or small children, be prepared to have help for them or try to evacuate them early. You may also want to prepare to evacuate your pets as well, bringing emergency food and water for them.
You should have prepared emergency supplies in your home. Bring them with you when you evacuate. At least take fresh water, some food, and extra clothing. Most important, have a first aid kit in case of injuries.
If you have time, you might try to secure your house, but not at the risk of your own life. There is little you can do to protect your possessions from an incoming tsunami, so focus on saving lives first.
Tsunami Watch or Tsunami Warning
The two terms have important different meanings. When authorities issue a tsunami watch, it means that a tsunami is possible, but no one has reported seeing one or a sighting hasn't been verified yet. A watch may include estimates for when and where a tsunami may strike.
When they issue a tsunami warning, it means that a tsunami has been reported and confirmed. By the time they issue the warning, the tsunami could be close. The warning will also let you know where to expect it to strike and when.
During the Wave
If you are unfortunate enough to find yourself at the mercy of an incoming tsunami, climb onto a rooftop or the highest point you can reach. The more stable the building, the safer the support will be. But get as high as you can no matter what. Hold on as tight as you can to any stable and heavy object available. If you must, climb a tree.
If you've already been overtaken by the water, grab something floating that's large enough to support you and hold onto it until you can find stable ground or get help. Grab anything that seems firm and try to get out of the water. The current will be strong, and you could be hurt by debris in the water. If you can get any part of your body out of the water, do so.
You have to accept that tsunamis, like most natural disasters, are uncontrollable. You will have the earthquake warning to give you time to escape.
Emergency Preparedness For A Tsunami - Being Prepared To Face The Wrath Of The Sea!
By Abhishek Agarwal
In 2004, a powerful tsunami washed over coastal areas in Southeast Asia, extending all the way to Africa's west coast. The tsunami took more than 200,000 lives, and some people were never recovered or identified. Much of this loss might have been avoided had an effective emergency preparedness system been in place.
The 2004 tsunami may have been the most deadly in recorded history, but it was not the first - 25 of them were recorded in the 20th Century alone. And while many of them have happened in the South Pacific, tsunamis have been recorded all over the world, from Japan to Chile, from Italy to to the United Kingdom. New Zealand's geologic record documents a tsunami 125,000 years ago,and written history documents these disasters as early as 1580 B.C. (following the Santorini volcano).
Until very recently, scientists have not been able to predict when and where a tsunami will strike, making emergency preparedness very difficult. Caused by earthquakes, volcanoes, and landslides on the sea floor, today we can make and educated guess about when they will happen after such an event.
Today, regions at high risk may use a tsunami warning system to warn people before the wave reaches coastal areas. Computer models are used to predict the time and location of impact Until now, the exact location where tsunamis will strike cannot yet be predicted. But once an underground earthquake occurs, an alert is sent to coastal communities that something could go in that direction. Emergency preparedness efforts are more likely to succeed when these alerts are timely.
The famous "Ring of Fire," where many volcanoes have occurrred along the lines where tectonic plates meet in the Asian Pacific, was not adequately protected by an early warning system in 2004. This was a valuable lesson for coastal areas around the world, and scientists are working hard to prepare for future events in that area.
Emergency preparedness for tsunamis begins with early warning systems that include four elements: information, advisory, watch, and warning. When the system detects an underground earthquake, Hawaii's Pacific Tsunami Warning Center releases the news to the effected communities. Because it is too early to predict the size, time, or location of the potential tsunami at this stage, a more general advisory will be delivered to likely targets. It may take hours from the seismic event to the actual tsunami.
Where evidence suggests that a tsunami is likely but hasn't been witnessed or verified, early warning systems issue a watch alerting populations to the likelihoood. Emergency preparedness plans dictate that, at this time, people in coastal areas should be alert and watch the sea for signs, like a quick receding of ocean waters, that a tsunami is on its way. A siren may be used to alert the people, anywhere from three hours before the event is expected. If the water does begin to recede, a mandatory evacuation will begin.
Once a tsunami has been seen and verified, they issue a warning with more detailed information about where and when the giant wave will hit. A siren will again alert people. Once a warning is issued, people should already be moving out of the danger zone. They can go to high ground or try to go farther inland, taking fresh water, food, and extra clothing with them as they go. Part of the emergency preparedness effort includes announcements that will be made over the radio telling them when it's safe to return.
The early warning system continues to work during and after the event. People will remain in the area to monitor the situation and to cancel the warning if the tsunami does not materialize.
World leaders now recognize how important emergency preparedness is to potential tsunami victims. They encourage community leaders to develop plans and conduct exercises so that they know how long it will take to evacuate vulnerable areas. They should also have current estimates on the number of people in the area so that they'll know if people are missing after the crisis has passed.
The 2004 tsunami may have been the most deadly in recorded history, but it was not the first - 25 of them were recorded in the 20th Century alone. And while many of them have happened in the South Pacific, tsunamis have been recorded all over the world, from Japan to Chile, from Italy to to the United Kingdom. New Zealand's geologic record documents a tsunami 125,000 years ago,and written history documents these disasters as early as 1580 B.C. (following the Santorini volcano).
Until very recently, scientists have not been able to predict when and where a tsunami will strike, making emergency preparedness very difficult. Caused by earthquakes, volcanoes, and landslides on the sea floor, today we can make and educated guess about when they will happen after such an event.
Today, regions at high risk may use a tsunami warning system to warn people before the wave reaches coastal areas. Computer models are used to predict the time and location of impact Until now, the exact location where tsunamis will strike cannot yet be predicted. But once an underground earthquake occurs, an alert is sent to coastal communities that something could go in that direction. Emergency preparedness efforts are more likely to succeed when these alerts are timely.
The famous "Ring of Fire," where many volcanoes have occurrred along the lines where tectonic plates meet in the Asian Pacific, was not adequately protected by an early warning system in 2004. This was a valuable lesson for coastal areas around the world, and scientists are working hard to prepare for future events in that area.
Emergency preparedness for tsunamis begins with early warning systems that include four elements: information, advisory, watch, and warning. When the system detects an underground earthquake, Hawaii's Pacific Tsunami Warning Center releases the news to the effected communities. Because it is too early to predict the size, time, or location of the potential tsunami at this stage, a more general advisory will be delivered to likely targets. It may take hours from the seismic event to the actual tsunami.
Where evidence suggests that a tsunami is likely but hasn't been witnessed or verified, early warning systems issue a watch alerting populations to the likelihoood. Emergency preparedness plans dictate that, at this time, people in coastal areas should be alert and watch the sea for signs, like a quick receding of ocean waters, that a tsunami is on its way. A siren may be used to alert the people, anywhere from three hours before the event is expected. If the water does begin to recede, a mandatory evacuation will begin.
Once a tsunami has been seen and verified, they issue a warning with more detailed information about where and when the giant wave will hit. A siren will again alert people. Once a warning is issued, people should already be moving out of the danger zone. They can go to high ground or try to go farther inland, taking fresh water, food, and extra clothing with them as they go. Part of the emergency preparedness effort includes announcements that will be made over the radio telling them when it's safe to return.
The early warning system continues to work during and after the event. People will remain in the area to monitor the situation and to cancel the warning if the tsunami does not materialize.
World leaders now recognize how important emergency preparedness is to potential tsunami victims. They encourage community leaders to develop plans and conduct exercises so that they know how long it will take to evacuate vulnerable areas. They should also have current estimates on the number of people in the area so that they'll know if people are missing after the crisis has passed.
Tsunami Warning System Trends in 2006
By Lance Winslow
After the Christmas of 2004 Sumatra Earthquake, which triggered the Indonesia Tsunami killing over 100,000 people it was determined by scientists and observers that if they had a better warning system that many of those people would not have died at all.
Former Presidents George Herbert Walker Bush and President William Jefferson Clinton while doing their fundraising promised to make that early warning system a reality. This pledge was further reiterated by our current President George Walker Bush, who under the guidance of his scientific team determined that the United States also needed a better warning systems in some part of our nation, although many places already had such installed.
Tsunami Warning Systems will now be installed throughout out our coastlines to protect all those living near the ocean. Many poorer nations do not have such systems yet desperately need them. Many places in South America, Africa and Central America are completely without Tsunami Warning Systems currently.
The oceans on our planet are scattered with Subduction Zones similar to the one, which triggered the Tsunami in Indonesia. We will see a trend in Tsunami Warning Systems technologies being set up throughout the world and this trend will continue in 2006 and beyond. Think on this.
Former Presidents George Herbert Walker Bush and President William Jefferson Clinton while doing their fundraising promised to make that early warning system a reality. This pledge was further reiterated by our current President George Walker Bush, who under the guidance of his scientific team determined that the United States also needed a better warning systems in some part of our nation, although many places already had such installed.
Tsunami Warning Systems will now be installed throughout out our coastlines to protect all those living near the ocean. Many poorer nations do not have such systems yet desperately need them. Many places in South America, Africa and Central America are completely without Tsunami Warning Systems currently.
The oceans on our planet are scattered with Subduction Zones similar to the one, which triggered the Tsunami in Indonesia. We will see a trend in Tsunami Warning Systems technologies being set up throughout the world and this trend will continue in 2006 and beyond. Think on this.
Tsunami Warning Signs
By David Willis
Awareness of Tsunami Warning Signs is vital when travelling through or living in tsunami prone areas. An earthquake is a natural tsunami warning. If you feel a strong quake, do not stay in a place where you may be exposed to a tsunami. Listen to the radio or television for any information or alerts. If you are subscribed to TsunamiSMS make sure your mobile phone is always switched on and that the ring tone is loud enough to hear, even when you are asleep. If you have not yet taken the precaution to subscribe to TsunamiSMS, click here.
Witnesses have reported that an approaching tsunami is sometimes preceded by a noticeable fall or rise in the water level. If you see the ocean receding unusually rapidly or far it's a sign that a big wave may be on its way. Go to high ground immediately or make your way at least five kilometers inland.
Remember that a tsunami is a series of waves and that the first wave may not be the most dangerous. The danger from a tsunami can last for several hours after the arrival of the first wave. A tsunami wave train may come as a series of surges that are five minutes to an hour apart. The cycle may be marked by a repeated retreat and advance of the ocean. Stay out of danger until you hear it is safe.
A tsunami surge may be small at one point of the shore and large at another point a short distance away. Do not assume that because there is minimal sign of a tsunami in one place it will be like that everywhere else.
Stay away from rivers and streams that lead to the ocean.
Subscribe to a Tsunami SMS Warning System to protect yourself and your loved ones.
Witnesses have reported that an approaching tsunami is sometimes preceded by a noticeable fall or rise in the water level. If you see the ocean receding unusually rapidly or far it's a sign that a big wave may be on its way. Go to high ground immediately or make your way at least five kilometers inland.
Remember that a tsunami is a series of waves and that the first wave may not be the most dangerous. The danger from a tsunami can last for several hours after the arrival of the first wave. A tsunami wave train may come as a series of surges that are five minutes to an hour apart. The cycle may be marked by a repeated retreat and advance of the ocean. Stay out of danger until you hear it is safe.
A tsunami surge may be small at one point of the shore and large at another point a short distance away. Do not assume that because there is minimal sign of a tsunami in one place it will be like that everywhere else.
Stay away from rivers and streams that lead to the ocean.
Subscribe to a Tsunami SMS Warning System to protect yourself and your loved ones.
Indonesia Tsunami Warning System - What is Being Done?
By Lance Winslow
Nobody in the present period will forget the 200,000 victims of the Indonesia Tsunami, which was caused by the Sumatra Earthquake on Christmas Eve. But what is being done in the region now while it is still seismic active with major Volcanoes and Earthquakes? The Pacific Rim of Fire needs warning system throughout, along with the Indian Ocean, there too is seismic activity in the Caribbean as well, thus, we should be considering systems here too.
Indeed, there are some good things that are being done right now to save lives so another 200,000 people do not perish next time there is a Tsunami or a large Earthquake, which triggers one. As the Japanese, Americans and several other nations are installing Tsunami Warning systems around the globe, time is important too, the more systems that are in place, the safer human civilizations close to the water can be and there are problems now with Volcanoes and some people will not evacuate as they believe that the Volcano represents a safe passage to the final journey in life? And Volcanoes are an environmental nightmare for humans and nature. Although some could say it is merely the cleansing of the Earth so it can start a new and part of the cycle?
There have been over the last two-years hundreds of large 4 plus Earthquakes and many over 6 and 7 also. The region is very seismically active and these Tsunami Alarms will help warn people of any impending Tsunami Wave to allow people lead time to evacuate the area near the ocean. Consider this in 2006.
Indeed, there are some good things that are being done right now to save lives so another 200,000 people do not perish next time there is a Tsunami or a large Earthquake, which triggers one. As the Japanese, Americans and several other nations are installing Tsunami Warning systems around the globe, time is important too, the more systems that are in place, the safer human civilizations close to the water can be and there are problems now with Volcanoes and some people will not evacuate as they believe that the Volcano represents a safe passage to the final journey in life? And Volcanoes are an environmental nightmare for humans and nature. Although some could say it is merely the cleansing of the Earth so it can start a new and part of the cycle?
There have been over the last two-years hundreds of large 4 plus Earthquakes and many over 6 and 7 also. The region is very seismically active and these Tsunami Alarms will help warn people of any impending Tsunami Wave to allow people lead time to evacuate the area near the ocean. Consider this in 2006.
Don't Waste Your Technical Training Dollars and Your Employees' Time - Stop Lecturing
By Deborah Laurel
In the training world, there are three models of adult instruction: the Technical Lecturer, the Expert Presenter, and the Learning Facilitator. As you read their descriptions, identify who is currently giving your training and assess how effective they may or may not be in actually building your employees' skills.
1. Technical Lecturer
The first model of adult instruction is very typical in many organizations. In this model, the person with the most expertise or time on the job, or maybe even the person unlucky enough to be there that day, stands up in front of a room and lectures. The learners come to gain information, so they expect to listen while the lecturer talks. The focus is on the lecturer. We will refer to this model as the Technical Lecturer.
These individuals may or may not be subject matter experts. They are frequently drafted to make the presentation; it is not something they do frequently or comfortably. They have never been trained as trainers and they know nothing about adult learning. As a result, they may simply read their notes or pack all of their information into PowerPoint slides, which they may read with their backs to the audience.
They send out a tsunami of information to wash over the audience, hoping some of it will stick. However, since they rarely ask the audience for their feedback or ideas, the Technical Lecturer does not have any real evidence that learning has occurred.
Occasionally, the Technical Lecturer can provide good examples or use humor to make a point. More often, they unconsciously use technical jargon without explaining its meaning and may speak over the heads of the audience.
In summary, the Technical Lecturer is a subject matter expert or a person who presents information. The focus is on the lecturer. The role of the learner is to listen and absorb. The learner's knowledge and experience is not considered relevant. Learning is a passive process of listening. As a result, this training experience is not cost-effective.
2. Expert Presenter
In the second model, an educational expert presents his or her wisdom and experience. The learners come to be educated by the expert, so they expect to listen while the expert talks. The focus is still on the expert. We will refer to this model as the Expert Presenter.
Some technical experts are masterful Expert Presenters. They are highly competent and credible, extremely knowledgeable, and clearly committed to their subject areas. They know something about how adults learn and are often entertaining.
They are anxious to share everything they knew with their audiences. As a result,
they give huge amounts of reference information for the learners. They provide PowerPoint visuals to clarify concepts. However, they do most of the talking, rather than the learners.
Expert Presenters are excellent storytellers, able to verbally create imaginative and realistic scenarios that bring concepts alive and engage their listeners. They provide examples that are effective and useful.
They establish a positive rapport with their audiences through their credentials, personalities, humorous anecdotes, and responses to questions.
They occasionally involve their audiences by posing questions and scenarios, and may even reward respondents with prizes.
In summary, the Expert Presenter presents his wisdom and experience. The focus is still on the expert alone. The role of the learner is to listen and absorb. The learner's knowledge and experience is considered a limited source of information. Learning is therefore a passive process of being educated. As a result, this training experience has minimal cost-effectiveness.
3. Learning Facilitator
The third model of adult instruction is a more informal adult learning approach that is found in many organizations: the trainer facilitates opportunities for the learners to discover and then practice new skills. The learners are active participants in their own learning, so they expect to offer information and demonstrate what they have learned. The focus is on the learner. We will refer to this model as the Learning Facilitator.
Learning Facilitators must also be highly competent and credible. However, they are aware that adults can learn only so much information at one time, so they focus in on key concepts and skills. They also make sure that these concepts are understood before moving on to the next topic area.
Although they provide reference materials, they are generally incorporated into the participants' workbooks, which also contain worksheets for learning activities. They recognize that PowerPoint is an audiovisual intended only to supplement but not replace the learning materials or activities.
Learning Facilitators need excellent presentation skills, so they are also masterful storytellers. However, they often call on participants to share their stories, because they know that will keep everyone more engaged.
They also realize that learners have different learning styles, so they make sure there is a variety of learning activities that will satisfy the aural, the visual, and the kinesthetic learner (who needs to move physically in order to learn).
The key focus is on enabling the learners to actively discover what they need to learn. So the learners do most of the talking, rather than the Learning Facilitator. This does not mean that the learners control the class. The Learning Facilitator knows when to assign activities, how to debrief them, and how to handle questions that arise so participants don't pull the content off track.
In summary, the Learning Facilitator enables the learners to discover and practice new skills. The focus is on the learner. The role of the learner is to offer information and demonstrate learning. For this reason, the learner's knowledge and experience is a prime source of information and meaning. Learning is an active process of learner involvement. Therefore, there is significant cost-effectiveness for this learning experience.
Which model achieves the most learning? Hopefully by now you realize why the Learning Facilitator is the only instructional approach that will actually build your employees' skills. So stop wasting your training dollars and your employees' time with ineffective training methods!
1. Technical Lecturer
The first model of adult instruction is very typical in many organizations. In this model, the person with the most expertise or time on the job, or maybe even the person unlucky enough to be there that day, stands up in front of a room and lectures. The learners come to gain information, so they expect to listen while the lecturer talks. The focus is on the lecturer. We will refer to this model as the Technical Lecturer.
These individuals may or may not be subject matter experts. They are frequently drafted to make the presentation; it is not something they do frequently or comfortably. They have never been trained as trainers and they know nothing about adult learning. As a result, they may simply read their notes or pack all of their information into PowerPoint slides, which they may read with their backs to the audience.
They send out a tsunami of information to wash over the audience, hoping some of it will stick. However, since they rarely ask the audience for their feedback or ideas, the Technical Lecturer does not have any real evidence that learning has occurred.
Occasionally, the Technical Lecturer can provide good examples or use humor to make a point. More often, they unconsciously use technical jargon without explaining its meaning and may speak over the heads of the audience.
In summary, the Technical Lecturer is a subject matter expert or a person who presents information. The focus is on the lecturer. The role of the learner is to listen and absorb. The learner's knowledge and experience is not considered relevant. Learning is a passive process of listening. As a result, this training experience is not cost-effective.
2. Expert Presenter
In the second model, an educational expert presents his or her wisdom and experience. The learners come to be educated by the expert, so they expect to listen while the expert talks. The focus is still on the expert. We will refer to this model as the Expert Presenter.
Some technical experts are masterful Expert Presenters. They are highly competent and credible, extremely knowledgeable, and clearly committed to their subject areas. They know something about how adults learn and are often entertaining.
They are anxious to share everything they knew with their audiences. As a result,
they give huge amounts of reference information for the learners. They provide PowerPoint visuals to clarify concepts. However, they do most of the talking, rather than the learners.
Expert Presenters are excellent storytellers, able to verbally create imaginative and realistic scenarios that bring concepts alive and engage their listeners. They provide examples that are effective and useful.
They establish a positive rapport with their audiences through their credentials, personalities, humorous anecdotes, and responses to questions.
They occasionally involve their audiences by posing questions and scenarios, and may even reward respondents with prizes.
In summary, the Expert Presenter presents his wisdom and experience. The focus is still on the expert alone. The role of the learner is to listen and absorb. The learner's knowledge and experience is considered a limited source of information. Learning is therefore a passive process of being educated. As a result, this training experience has minimal cost-effectiveness.
3. Learning Facilitator
The third model of adult instruction is a more informal adult learning approach that is found in many organizations: the trainer facilitates opportunities for the learners to discover and then practice new skills. The learners are active participants in their own learning, so they expect to offer information and demonstrate what they have learned. The focus is on the learner. We will refer to this model as the Learning Facilitator.
Learning Facilitators must also be highly competent and credible. However, they are aware that adults can learn only so much information at one time, so they focus in on key concepts and skills. They also make sure that these concepts are understood before moving on to the next topic area.
Although they provide reference materials, they are generally incorporated into the participants' workbooks, which also contain worksheets for learning activities. They recognize that PowerPoint is an audiovisual intended only to supplement but not replace the learning materials or activities.
Learning Facilitators need excellent presentation skills, so they are also masterful storytellers. However, they often call on participants to share their stories, because they know that will keep everyone more engaged.
They also realize that learners have different learning styles, so they make sure there is a variety of learning activities that will satisfy the aural, the visual, and the kinesthetic learner (who needs to move physically in order to learn).
The key focus is on enabling the learners to actively discover what they need to learn. So the learners do most of the talking, rather than the Learning Facilitator. This does not mean that the learners control the class. The Learning Facilitator knows when to assign activities, how to debrief them, and how to handle questions that arise so participants don't pull the content off track.
In summary, the Learning Facilitator enables the learners to discover and practice new skills. The focus is on the learner. The role of the learner is to offer information and demonstrate learning. For this reason, the learner's knowledge and experience is a prime source of information and meaning. Learning is an active process of learner involvement. Therefore, there is significant cost-effectiveness for this learning experience.
Which model achieves the most learning? Hopefully by now you realize why the Learning Facilitator is the only instructional approach that will actually build your employees' skills. So stop wasting your training dollars and your employees' time with ineffective training methods!
A Brief History of the Recovery School District
By Andrew Stratton
Prior to Hurricane Katrina, the RSD had control of only five schools in Orleans Parish. After the storm, as a result of a poor reputation, many speculated that the New Orleans Public School System would remain shut down indefinitely. Seeing the hurricane as an opportunity for change, state government decided to take more control, and place approximately 100 additional schools in the RSD. While under this new ruling, these schools would remain in the recovery school district for at least five years. During this time, the schools test scores and overall performance would be evaluated. If these schools reached an acceptable level of academic performance, they would then be returned to local control.
So far, the program has been an overall success for the New Orleans Public School System. Between 2007 and 2010, fourth grade students have increased their pass rates for standardized tests from 49 to 65%. Eighth graders' pass rates have gone from 44 to 58%. The number of high school students performing on their appropriate grade-level has increased from 42 to 60% in math and 36-52% in English. Additionally, a considerably higher percentage of high schools students are graduating.
Though there are some traditional public schools in the RSD, the majority of it is comprised of charter schools. These schools are nonprofit organizations that control their own budget, make their own decisions regarding hires, and make specific academic decisions, while still receiving federal funding. The new system is also giving more choices to students and parents. There are no longer geographic boundaries that state that a student must go to a specific school based on their district, or what neighborhood they live in. Permits are no longer required to go to "out of district" schools. If a parent or student is not happy with the school that they are attending, for whatever reason, they now have the option to choose a new one. Charter schools are serving the majority of the approximate 24,000 students in the RSD.
The future of the recovery school district is still unclear. Being that the RSD has reached the five year mark, legislation will be held this fall to decide whether or not to continue on the current track of education, or to return the schools back to the local school board. Public opinion believes that the schools should remain in state control, as only 21% of voters stated that they felt the schools should be returned to Orleans Parish School Board. One of the issues at hand is that having two sets of government, one in Baton Rouge (state) and one in New Orleans (local,) isn't the most ideal situation. With all of this being said, it will be important for local government to provide a stable, productive and helpful plan regarding the future state of New Orleans Public Schools.
So far, the program has been an overall success for the New Orleans Public School System. Between 2007 and 2010, fourth grade students have increased their pass rates for standardized tests from 49 to 65%. Eighth graders' pass rates have gone from 44 to 58%. The number of high school students performing on their appropriate grade-level has increased from 42 to 60% in math and 36-52% in English. Additionally, a considerably higher percentage of high schools students are graduating.
Though there are some traditional public schools in the RSD, the majority of it is comprised of charter schools. These schools are nonprofit organizations that control their own budget, make their own decisions regarding hires, and make specific academic decisions, while still receiving federal funding. The new system is also giving more choices to students and parents. There are no longer geographic boundaries that state that a student must go to a specific school based on their district, or what neighborhood they live in. Permits are no longer required to go to "out of district" schools. If a parent or student is not happy with the school that they are attending, for whatever reason, they now have the option to choose a new one. Charter schools are serving the majority of the approximate 24,000 students in the RSD.
The future of the recovery school district is still unclear. Being that the RSD has reached the five year mark, legislation will be held this fall to decide whether or not to continue on the current track of education, or to return the schools back to the local school board. Public opinion believes that the schools should remain in state control, as only 21% of voters stated that they felt the schools should be returned to Orleans Parish School Board. One of the issues at hand is that having two sets of government, one in Baton Rouge (state) and one in New Orleans (local,) isn't the most ideal situation. With all of this being said, it will be important for local government to provide a stable, productive and helpful plan regarding the future state of New Orleans Public Schools.
The Importance of Master's Degree in Information Security
By Ems Aleks
Traditional schools are a lot different from online schooling systems especially when it comes to method of teaching the students. With the advent of modernization, almost everything you can see is controlled by computer and for that it made life a lot easier and faster; but it also give access to cyber hackers to bring their menace unto the cyber world. It is because of this instance that Masters Degree in Information security was created. This is to educate, train, and coach private civilians, students, and adults on how to secure their computer system to include all the files, data, and documents within it. From the world itself, this Masters Degree in Information security, offers a privilege to anyone to learn how to do programming, forensics, basic computer security operations, and finally to prevent any hackers from entering into any of their computer programs.
This Masters Degree in Information security can be obtained through online internet. You don't have to go to traditional schools that use rigid policies just to learn about how to protect a withheld information system. All of the courses or subjects thought under this degree are specifically designed and selected to make sure that the students will be able to learn best the concepts on securing certain data. The aim is to preserve to academic excellence among their students. The professors and teachers are all highly-skilled and trained in this line of specialty. You can rests assured that you will be thought by the best of the best.
This Information security Master's Degree gives chance to anyone to build their own defenses to fight off hackers and secure the viability of the computer system. The course is divided into two concentrations and each of them has different characteristics when it comes to curriculum.
The first one is called technical concentration and it deals with the hands-on training for Information security Masters Degree. These are specifically created to help average men and women to apply what they have learned.
The second one is called managerial concentration and it is made for those who might want to work at managerial positions. It is more of leadership courses rather than the real online combat. This type of degree can be availed through online internet. The only thing needed is a computer connected to internet and then anyone can look for the particular online website that offers online schooling specifically on Information security Masters Degree. You will be provided with set of guides that you can use to make the enrollment. It is hassle-free and allows fast processing of documents. Online internet can provide you with everything that you need with just short span of time.
This Masters Degree in Information security can be obtained through online internet. You don't have to go to traditional schools that use rigid policies just to learn about how to protect a withheld information system. All of the courses or subjects thought under this degree are specifically designed and selected to make sure that the students will be able to learn best the concepts on securing certain data. The aim is to preserve to academic excellence among their students. The professors and teachers are all highly-skilled and trained in this line of specialty. You can rests assured that you will be thought by the best of the best.
This Information security Master's Degree gives chance to anyone to build their own defenses to fight off hackers and secure the viability of the computer system. The course is divided into two concentrations and each of them has different characteristics when it comes to curriculum.
The first one is called technical concentration and it deals with the hands-on training for Information security Masters Degree. These are specifically created to help average men and women to apply what they have learned.
The second one is called managerial concentration and it is made for those who might want to work at managerial positions. It is more of leadership courses rather than the real online combat. This type of degree can be availed through online internet. The only thing needed is a computer connected to internet and then anyone can look for the particular online website that offers online schooling specifically on Information security Masters Degree. You will be provided with set of guides that you can use to make the enrollment. It is hassle-free and allows fast processing of documents. Online internet can provide you with everything that you need with just short span of time.
Earth Changes - Cyclones, Quakes, Tsunamis
By John Van Auken
Edgar Cayce's more than fourteen thousand readings contain several that prophesy major physical changes to our planet. And many of these were not the suspected Halaliel readings that some feel may be inaccurate, because they were given around the time that Cayce lost his center, during the Great Depression, and his state of mind was not the best.
Among these so-called earth changes readings are predictions of temperature changes in the deep waters of our planet that will change weather patterns. We now call them El Niño and La Niña, and they have indeed caused serious shifts in the Earth's winds and seas, serious weather changes. These readings also contain a prophesied earthquake under the sea in the Indian Ocean-likely the one we witnessed as the worst tsunami on record, killing coastal people from Indonesia to Africa.
The Japanese researcher Masaru Emoto, author of The Hidden Messages in Water, spoke at an A.R.E. conference recently, revealing how his research with water crystals shows the positive and negative influence of human words and thoughts on water. He said that he believes the waters of the world are reacting to human energy patterns, causing many of these disasters. Cayce would agree; his readings state that sunspots, which affect many of our communications systems, are caused more by human attitudes and emotions than cosmic forces.
Since Edgar Cayce stopped giving readings (August 1944) and passed over to the other realms of life (January 3, 1945), many significant Earth-changing events have occurred, as he predicted. Let's take an updated look at recent disasters.
As of this writing, the most recent major disaster is the earthquake in China's heavily populated Chengdu City, capital of Wenchan County, a high-tech region with much wealth and education. 90 million people live in this area, 9 million in the city. The intense quake was so powerful that it was felt as far away as Beijing, 943 miles to the northeast, and Thai, the capital of Bangkok, 1,118 miles south! It registered 7.8 on the Richter scale, which is the strongest quake in China in thirty years. Deaths are estimated to be in the tens of thousands. One school, holding 900 young students, collapsed, killing nearly all of those inside. Five nearby schools collapsed too, but reports were not available at the time of this writing.
More than 300 aftershocks were registered after the quake, and a Chinese seismologist warned residents in earthquake-affected areas in southwest China of more tremors, which could be just as devastating. "Wenchuan is prone to earthquakes as it is on a major fault line-the south-north fault line that runs from Yunnan to Ningxia," said Zhang Guomin, a research fellow with the China Seismological Bureau.
Another recent disaster is the cyclone on May 6, 2008. U.S. Charge D'Affaires in Yangon (a city in former Burma), Shari Villarosa, said on a conference call, "The information we are receiving indicates over 100,000 deaths" from the cyclone. It ravaged the Irrawaddy delta in Myanmar (formerly known as Burma).
Prior to this cyclone, there was the tsunami that hit December 26, 2004, killing an estimated 283,000! Burma only lost 61 people in that tsunami. Indonesia lost the most people: 230,261. Sri Lanka lost 30,957, and India lost the third most: 16,413. Even the east coast of Africa lost 286 people to this massive wave of water.
The U.S. Geological Survey said the earthquake that caused the tsunami measured 9.0 on the Richter scale, making it the largest quake worldwide in four decades.
On May 7, 2008, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake off the Japanese coast rattled Tokyo City. A second quake hit in the same area about half an hour later with a magnitude of 5.3. Japan is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world, although Tokyo has not been hit with a major quake since the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake, which killed 140,000 people. Japan sits on the junction of five tectonic plates and 80 active volcanoes!
The property damage caused by the 1995 earthquake in Kobe, Japan, reached $150 billion.
October 8, 2005, a magnitude 7.6 earthquake in Pakistan killed 40,000.
The most devastating earthquake following Cayce's passing was the 1976 Tangshan magnitude 8 event in China, whose toll varies between the official 255,000 and the more probable 655,000!
Of course, the earthquake that struck the Chinese city of Shaanzi in 1556 was the deadliest in known history. No magnitudes were captured in those days, and of course no recordings exist, but it is said to have taken the lives of 830,000 people!
An earthquake was responsible for the deadliest landslide this century, which caused 40,000-50,000 deaths in western Iran on June 20, 1990.
A magnitude 7.8 earthquake at Mount Huascaran, Peru, on May 21, 1970, triggered a rock-and-snow avalanche that buried the towns of Yungay and Ranrahirca, killing perhaps as many as 20,000 people.
The most costly landslide in U.S. history was a relatively slow-moving event in Thistle, Utah, in the spring of 1983. The landslide was caused by the wet El Niño winter of 1982-83. Total losses were more than $400 million.
The largest earthquake this century was a magnitude 9.5 event that struck Chile on May 22, 1960. More than 2,000 people were killed in Chile, Hawaii, Japan, and the Philippines from this earthquake and the deadly tsunami that the quake created.
The most powerful quake in the U.S., and the second largest in the world this century, was a 9.2 temblor in Alaska, the Good Friday quake of 1964. The ensuing tsunami took 125 lives and caused about $310 million in property loss. The resulting tsunami wiped out an entire village in faraway Hawaii.
The eruption of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, on June 15, 1991, blasted about 1 cubic mile of ash and rock into the atmosphere. Avalanches of hot ash, gas, and fragments of pumice roared down the mountainside, filling valleys with as much as 600 feet of volcanic debris! The deposits will retain much of their heat for decades; even 5 years later they were measured at 900° F. Close cooperation between the U.S.G.S. and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology enabled the eruption to be forecast accurately, saving at least 5,000 lives.
The Nevado del Ruiz volcanic eruption in Colombia in 1985 ended the lives of 25,000 people, most of them caught in a massive mud flow that poured down the stricken mountain, inundating the city of Armero. By comparison, the Mount St. Helens eruption in 1980 shattered the peak and sent ash through the air for hundreds of miles, but had few fatalities.
Hurricane Katrina struck the U.S. Gulf Coast in August 2005; damage estimates from insurance costs alone were $30 billion! It was the most expensive disaster ever to hit the U.S., eclipsing Andrew in 1992, whose property damage was $25 billion.
The great Midwest flood of 1993 was the costliest flood in U.S. history, with estimated damages of $20 billion; however, only around 50 lives were lost.
Bangladesh and China have been devastated repeatedly by floods-Bangladesh lost 300,000 people in November 1970 and more than 130,000 in April 1991 from cyclone-induced flooding, and the massive flooding of the Yangtze River in China in 1931 caused more than 3 million deaths from flooding and subsequent starvation.
Our planet is actively changing. In one reading, Cayce stated that none of the physical devastation he predicted has to happen. The stability of the planet lies in humanity's collective hands. Cayce also confirmed the biblical axiom that 10 good people can save an entire city. This brings to mind an old story told by the editor of Guideposts magazine. He received letters from two different women in a small town in California. Each told him how they were awakened in the dark hours of predawn and powerfully guided by Spirit to go out into the street of their little town and pray. They both did. Around 5 a.m. a powerful earthquake hit their town, destroying the entire downtown area, but not one person was killed or even injured. These two ladies did not know each other, living on opposite corners of the town. In this case the prayers of two save a town.
Rather than get anxious over the world situation and sound-bite political leaders, prayer is a powerful service we can perform for our fellow planet dwellers. Our prayers ascend into the Collective Consciousness and subliminally affect the whole of human consciousness and Nature's sensitive vibrations.
Prayer time is also a wonderful sanctuary from the world's weight. In this inner space of contacting God with love and caring for others, we can find a refuge for our often weary hearts and minds.
Cayce advises, "Why worry when you can pray? He [God] is the Whole, you are a part. Coordinate your abilities with the Whole." (2528-2)
Among these so-called earth changes readings are predictions of temperature changes in the deep waters of our planet that will change weather patterns. We now call them El Niño and La Niña, and they have indeed caused serious shifts in the Earth's winds and seas, serious weather changes. These readings also contain a prophesied earthquake under the sea in the Indian Ocean-likely the one we witnessed as the worst tsunami on record, killing coastal people from Indonesia to Africa.
The Japanese researcher Masaru Emoto, author of The Hidden Messages in Water, spoke at an A.R.E. conference recently, revealing how his research with water crystals shows the positive and negative influence of human words and thoughts on water. He said that he believes the waters of the world are reacting to human energy patterns, causing many of these disasters. Cayce would agree; his readings state that sunspots, which affect many of our communications systems, are caused more by human attitudes and emotions than cosmic forces.
Since Edgar Cayce stopped giving readings (August 1944) and passed over to the other realms of life (January 3, 1945), many significant Earth-changing events have occurred, as he predicted. Let's take an updated look at recent disasters.
As of this writing, the most recent major disaster is the earthquake in China's heavily populated Chengdu City, capital of Wenchan County, a high-tech region with much wealth and education. 90 million people live in this area, 9 million in the city. The intense quake was so powerful that it was felt as far away as Beijing, 943 miles to the northeast, and Thai, the capital of Bangkok, 1,118 miles south! It registered 7.8 on the Richter scale, which is the strongest quake in China in thirty years. Deaths are estimated to be in the tens of thousands. One school, holding 900 young students, collapsed, killing nearly all of those inside. Five nearby schools collapsed too, but reports were not available at the time of this writing.
More than 300 aftershocks were registered after the quake, and a Chinese seismologist warned residents in earthquake-affected areas in southwest China of more tremors, which could be just as devastating. "Wenchuan is prone to earthquakes as it is on a major fault line-the south-north fault line that runs from Yunnan to Ningxia," said Zhang Guomin, a research fellow with the China Seismological Bureau.
Another recent disaster is the cyclone on May 6, 2008. U.S. Charge D'Affaires in Yangon (a city in former Burma), Shari Villarosa, said on a conference call, "The information we are receiving indicates over 100,000 deaths" from the cyclone. It ravaged the Irrawaddy delta in Myanmar (formerly known as Burma).
Prior to this cyclone, there was the tsunami that hit December 26, 2004, killing an estimated 283,000! Burma only lost 61 people in that tsunami. Indonesia lost the most people: 230,261. Sri Lanka lost 30,957, and India lost the third most: 16,413. Even the east coast of Africa lost 286 people to this massive wave of water.
The U.S. Geological Survey said the earthquake that caused the tsunami measured 9.0 on the Richter scale, making it the largest quake worldwide in four decades.
On May 7, 2008, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake off the Japanese coast rattled Tokyo City. A second quake hit in the same area about half an hour later with a magnitude of 5.3. Japan is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world, although Tokyo has not been hit with a major quake since the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake, which killed 140,000 people. Japan sits on the junction of five tectonic plates and 80 active volcanoes!
The property damage caused by the 1995 earthquake in Kobe, Japan, reached $150 billion.
October 8, 2005, a magnitude 7.6 earthquake in Pakistan killed 40,000.
The most devastating earthquake following Cayce's passing was the 1976 Tangshan magnitude 8 event in China, whose toll varies between the official 255,000 and the more probable 655,000!
Of course, the earthquake that struck the Chinese city of Shaanzi in 1556 was the deadliest in known history. No magnitudes were captured in those days, and of course no recordings exist, but it is said to have taken the lives of 830,000 people!
An earthquake was responsible for the deadliest landslide this century, which caused 40,000-50,000 deaths in western Iran on June 20, 1990.
A magnitude 7.8 earthquake at Mount Huascaran, Peru, on May 21, 1970, triggered a rock-and-snow avalanche that buried the towns of Yungay and Ranrahirca, killing perhaps as many as 20,000 people.
The most costly landslide in U.S. history was a relatively slow-moving event in Thistle, Utah, in the spring of 1983. The landslide was caused by the wet El Niño winter of 1982-83. Total losses were more than $400 million.
The largest earthquake this century was a magnitude 9.5 event that struck Chile on May 22, 1960. More than 2,000 people were killed in Chile, Hawaii, Japan, and the Philippines from this earthquake and the deadly tsunami that the quake created.
The most powerful quake in the U.S., and the second largest in the world this century, was a 9.2 temblor in Alaska, the Good Friday quake of 1964. The ensuing tsunami took 125 lives and caused about $310 million in property loss. The resulting tsunami wiped out an entire village in faraway Hawaii.
The eruption of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, on June 15, 1991, blasted about 1 cubic mile of ash and rock into the atmosphere. Avalanches of hot ash, gas, and fragments of pumice roared down the mountainside, filling valleys with as much as 600 feet of volcanic debris! The deposits will retain much of their heat for decades; even 5 years later they were measured at 900° F. Close cooperation between the U.S.G.S. and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology enabled the eruption to be forecast accurately, saving at least 5,000 lives.
The Nevado del Ruiz volcanic eruption in Colombia in 1985 ended the lives of 25,000 people, most of them caught in a massive mud flow that poured down the stricken mountain, inundating the city of Armero. By comparison, the Mount St. Helens eruption in 1980 shattered the peak and sent ash through the air for hundreds of miles, but had few fatalities.
Hurricane Katrina struck the U.S. Gulf Coast in August 2005; damage estimates from insurance costs alone were $30 billion! It was the most expensive disaster ever to hit the U.S., eclipsing Andrew in 1992, whose property damage was $25 billion.
The great Midwest flood of 1993 was the costliest flood in U.S. history, with estimated damages of $20 billion; however, only around 50 lives were lost.
Bangladesh and China have been devastated repeatedly by floods-Bangladesh lost 300,000 people in November 1970 and more than 130,000 in April 1991 from cyclone-induced flooding, and the massive flooding of the Yangtze River in China in 1931 caused more than 3 million deaths from flooding and subsequent starvation.
Our planet is actively changing. In one reading, Cayce stated that none of the physical devastation he predicted has to happen. The stability of the planet lies in humanity's collective hands. Cayce also confirmed the biblical axiom that 10 good people can save an entire city. This brings to mind an old story told by the editor of Guideposts magazine. He received letters from two different women in a small town in California. Each told him how they were awakened in the dark hours of predawn and powerfully guided by Spirit to go out into the street of their little town and pray. They both did. Around 5 a.m. a powerful earthquake hit their town, destroying the entire downtown area, but not one person was killed or even injured. These two ladies did not know each other, living on opposite corners of the town. In this case the prayers of two save a town.
Rather than get anxious over the world situation and sound-bite political leaders, prayer is a powerful service we can perform for our fellow planet dwellers. Our prayers ascend into the Collective Consciousness and subliminally affect the whole of human consciousness and Nature's sensitive vibrations.
Prayer time is also a wonderful sanctuary from the world's weight. In this inner space of contacting God with love and caring for others, we can find a refuge for our often weary hearts and minds.
Cayce advises, "Why worry when you can pray? He [God] is the Whole, you are a part. Coordinate your abilities with the Whole." (2528-2)
Recalling My Memories on the Day of the Indian Ocean's Tsunami
By Rajkumar Kanagasingam
In the morning of 26th of December 2004, people were running here and there in our residential area where we were staying in Colombo, the capital of the Indian Ocean's Island state of Sri Lanka.
I went near the canal where people were telling water is flowing backwards. I could see that seawater was moving backwards at a high speed. I was surprised for a moment at what was happening around.
A strange environment was created everywhere around there. The seawater, which had entered inland in our residential area, had started to flow towards the sea. There were hundreds of people coming towards the sea and having a look as it. The sea level had gone unusually down and we could see some of the rocks in the sea that were normally invisible.
I stayed on the upper-beach area, which has few rocks around it. I didn't step further down though a few others were even going into the sea. Somewhere my inner sense was alerting me there might be danger somewhere around any time.
I was there for a few minutes and was about to return. There were quiet a few people who had come to gaze at the sea. It was like a festival season around there.
While I was reaching my residence, again there was shouting and screaming that the water was again rushing in the opposite direction in the canal. When I went near the canal, I found the water quickly started to rise, and started to move too speedily backwards in a rush. I was perplexed for a moment as to what was causing for those backward movements.
I was little a frightened when the water started to flow over the small wall that was built along the canal. I started to move towards my house and the overflowing seawater had wet my legs.
I started to run and when I reached the house, the water had started to enter through the side door's crevices. The water had risen in the house in a few minutes up to about three feet so quickly.
I shouted at my grandmother "get away quickly" but she was busy, removing things on the ground floor. I warned her once again, that if she did not get out now from the house, that I was also going to die with her.
She stopped saving her goods, which she valued more than her life and went out. She was standing on a safe place, which was at that time not filled by water. I was screaming not to stay even and that place, but she dared to stay there. Though she was in her early eighties she was bold enough to face anything because of the hardships she faced in the war-torn areas. Her smiling face even at that time of calamity made me wonder whether I should laugh or cry.
Though I was a little angry over her obduracy in not heeding my warnings, I could nevertheless admire her courage, which acted as a spur for me to face any eventuality dauntlessly.
I went further upwards with my grandmother and now the people start to flee even from the safe places around there. I went with her crossing the main road to a safe place, which was many meters away from our place.
When I returned to our flooded house, I found the water had receded, leaving behind clay and mud water everywhere.
The BBC came out with detailed information about the casualties of the devastation. The whole world startled at the gravity, severity and scale of devastation around the Indian Ocean's Rim countries.
I was really paralysed over the phenomena, which had suddenly developed in the region.
I went near the canal where people were telling water is flowing backwards. I could see that seawater was moving backwards at a high speed. I was surprised for a moment at what was happening around.
A strange environment was created everywhere around there. The seawater, which had entered inland in our residential area, had started to flow towards the sea. There were hundreds of people coming towards the sea and having a look as it. The sea level had gone unusually down and we could see some of the rocks in the sea that were normally invisible.
I stayed on the upper-beach area, which has few rocks around it. I didn't step further down though a few others were even going into the sea. Somewhere my inner sense was alerting me there might be danger somewhere around any time.
I was there for a few minutes and was about to return. There were quiet a few people who had come to gaze at the sea. It was like a festival season around there.
While I was reaching my residence, again there was shouting and screaming that the water was again rushing in the opposite direction in the canal. When I went near the canal, I found the water quickly started to rise, and started to move too speedily backwards in a rush. I was perplexed for a moment as to what was causing for those backward movements.
I was little a frightened when the water started to flow over the small wall that was built along the canal. I started to move towards my house and the overflowing seawater had wet my legs.
I started to run and when I reached the house, the water had started to enter through the side door's crevices. The water had risen in the house in a few minutes up to about three feet so quickly.
I shouted at my grandmother "get away quickly" but she was busy, removing things on the ground floor. I warned her once again, that if she did not get out now from the house, that I was also going to die with her.
She stopped saving her goods, which she valued more than her life and went out. She was standing on a safe place, which was at that time not filled by water. I was screaming not to stay even and that place, but she dared to stay there. Though she was in her early eighties she was bold enough to face anything because of the hardships she faced in the war-torn areas. Her smiling face even at that time of calamity made me wonder whether I should laugh or cry.
Though I was a little angry over her obduracy in not heeding my warnings, I could nevertheless admire her courage, which acted as a spur for me to face any eventuality dauntlessly.
I went further upwards with my grandmother and now the people start to flee even from the safe places around there. I went with her crossing the main road to a safe place, which was many meters away from our place.
When I returned to our flooded house, I found the water had receded, leaving behind clay and mud water everywhere.
The BBC came out with detailed information about the casualties of the devastation. The whole world startled at the gravity, severity and scale of devastation around the Indian Ocean's Rim countries.
I was really paralysed over the phenomena, which had suddenly developed in the region.
Can You Outrun a Tsunami
By Gordan Gumpertz
Try to imagine a solid block of ocean hundreds of miles long, 3 miles deep, and as wide as the coastline, coming toward you at 500 to 600 miles an hour. That describes a tsunami in deep water racing toward land. A tsunami's speed slows as it encounters the coastline but the total water mass is still moving at 20 to 25 mph just before surging ashore. Maybe a world class distance runner who runs a 4- minute mile can stay ahead of an oncoming tsunami, but most of us are not world class runners. If it comes down to a race, the tsunami will win and the runner will lose almost every time. A tsunami rolling onshore is massive, powerful, and destroys everything in its path.
A major tsunami can start when sudden slippage occurs in a seafloor fault, triggering a major earthquake in the magnitude 8.0 to 9.0 range, and causing the seafloor on one side of the fault to sink and on the other to uplift, all in a matter of minutes. The earthquake plus the radical seafloor deformation displaces vast amounts of water, upsets the ocean's equilibrium, and sets a tsunami in motion.
A tsunami produced by this kind of event will tend to have long wavelengths, deep water columns, and high rates of travel speed. A wavelength is the distance between the crest of one wave and the crest of its trailing wave. The speed is determined by the ratio of the depth of the ocean to the length of the wave. The deeper the water and the longer the wave, the faster the tsunami moves. For example, a major earthquake and seafloor deformation at a depth of 20,000 ft. can initiate a tsunami with a wavelength of 175 miles, a water column depth of 15,000 ft., and a speed of between 500 and 600 miles an hour.
To illustrate the gradual drop in tsunami speed, when the depth decreases to 13,000 feet, the 15,000 ft. water column begins to drag the bottom, the wave length shortens to about 130 miles, and the speed drops to around 440 mph. At 6500 ft. depth, the wavelength shortens to less than 100 miles and the speed drops to around 300 mph. At 150 ft. depth, the wavelength reduces to 30 miles and the speed to approximately 100 mph. In 30 feet of water just before surging onshore, the wavelength is down to 6 miles and the tsunami's speed is 20 to 25 mph.
The height of the wave on the ocean's surface in deep water will tend to be only 2 to 3 feet and hardly noticeable among the normal ocean swells. A tsunami will usually pass unnoticed under the keel of a boat or ship in mid ocean, even though the wave may be as high as 100 feet when it surges onshore.
When the water depth decreases and the leading edge of the wave slows, the following wave at the tail end of the long trough is still traveling at a higher speed and rapidly closes the gap. The height of the tsunami increases dramatically as it nears shore due to compression from shoaling and from the rapidly closing trailing wave, and may be squeezed up to 100 feet high when it hits the beach. The 100-ft. towering wall of water is most often associated with shallow bays and narrow inlets where the tsunami acts like a giant tidal bore. On a broad beach type of coastline, the tsunami tends to come ashore as a rapidly rising sea. Along the broad beaches of Sumatra, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, the 2004 Indonesian tsunami produced a sudden 30-ft. rise in sea level that surged onto land so quickly that few could get away. Over 225,000 people died in 8 countries bordering the Indian Ocean.
Following the magnitude 9.1 Indian Ocean earthquake on December 26, 2004, in areas east of the epicenter Sumatra and Sri Lanka the trough of the first tsunami wave reached land ahead of the crest. When the trough arrives first, a phenomenon called drawdown occurs. If recognized, it can act as a warning for people in the area to move to higher ground before the tsunami hits. When drawdown happens, the sea level appears to sink and the tide recedes rapidly, leaving hundreds of yards of empty ocean bottom exposed. The drawdown is followed almost immediately by the oncoming crest and accompanying sudden rise in sea level as the tsunami charges full blown onto land. In areas west of the epicenter Thailand and India the crest and sudden rise in sea level struck first, without warning.
Since a tsunami tends to be made up of several waves, called a train, the waves in the train can hit at intervals of up to a half hour or more, depending on the length of the trough. The first wave to hit land is not always the largest. Frequently, it is the second or third wave that will prove to be the most destructive.
The distance a tsunami can travel inland once it hits the coast depends on the size of the wave and the slope of the land. The size of the wave is expressed as runup, a term meaning the height of the wave over mean high tide. In flat, low-lying areas, a major tsunami with a runup of 30 feet or more can reach areas 2 miles or more from the shoreline with devastating power.
If you are on or near the coastline when a tsunami warning is issued by your local authorities, follow evacuation directions and clear the area immediately. If you hang around to see how big the wave is, and then try to outrun it, you are almost certain to lose the race and your life.
A major tsunami can start when sudden slippage occurs in a seafloor fault, triggering a major earthquake in the magnitude 8.0 to 9.0 range, and causing the seafloor on one side of the fault to sink and on the other to uplift, all in a matter of minutes. The earthquake plus the radical seafloor deformation displaces vast amounts of water, upsets the ocean's equilibrium, and sets a tsunami in motion.
A tsunami produced by this kind of event will tend to have long wavelengths, deep water columns, and high rates of travel speed. A wavelength is the distance between the crest of one wave and the crest of its trailing wave. The speed is determined by the ratio of the depth of the ocean to the length of the wave. The deeper the water and the longer the wave, the faster the tsunami moves. For example, a major earthquake and seafloor deformation at a depth of 20,000 ft. can initiate a tsunami with a wavelength of 175 miles, a water column depth of 15,000 ft., and a speed of between 500 and 600 miles an hour.
To illustrate the gradual drop in tsunami speed, when the depth decreases to 13,000 feet, the 15,000 ft. water column begins to drag the bottom, the wave length shortens to about 130 miles, and the speed drops to around 440 mph. At 6500 ft. depth, the wavelength shortens to less than 100 miles and the speed drops to around 300 mph. At 150 ft. depth, the wavelength reduces to 30 miles and the speed to approximately 100 mph. In 30 feet of water just before surging onshore, the wavelength is down to 6 miles and the tsunami's speed is 20 to 25 mph.
The height of the wave on the ocean's surface in deep water will tend to be only 2 to 3 feet and hardly noticeable among the normal ocean swells. A tsunami will usually pass unnoticed under the keel of a boat or ship in mid ocean, even though the wave may be as high as 100 feet when it surges onshore.
When the water depth decreases and the leading edge of the wave slows, the following wave at the tail end of the long trough is still traveling at a higher speed and rapidly closes the gap. The height of the tsunami increases dramatically as it nears shore due to compression from shoaling and from the rapidly closing trailing wave, and may be squeezed up to 100 feet high when it hits the beach. The 100-ft. towering wall of water is most often associated with shallow bays and narrow inlets where the tsunami acts like a giant tidal bore. On a broad beach type of coastline, the tsunami tends to come ashore as a rapidly rising sea. Along the broad beaches of Sumatra, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, the 2004 Indonesian tsunami produced a sudden 30-ft. rise in sea level that surged onto land so quickly that few could get away. Over 225,000 people died in 8 countries bordering the Indian Ocean.
Following the magnitude 9.1 Indian Ocean earthquake on December 26, 2004, in areas east of the epicenter Sumatra and Sri Lanka the trough of the first tsunami wave reached land ahead of the crest. When the trough arrives first, a phenomenon called drawdown occurs. If recognized, it can act as a warning for people in the area to move to higher ground before the tsunami hits. When drawdown happens, the sea level appears to sink and the tide recedes rapidly, leaving hundreds of yards of empty ocean bottom exposed. The drawdown is followed almost immediately by the oncoming crest and accompanying sudden rise in sea level as the tsunami charges full blown onto land. In areas west of the epicenter Thailand and India the crest and sudden rise in sea level struck first, without warning.
Since a tsunami tends to be made up of several waves, called a train, the waves in the train can hit at intervals of up to a half hour or more, depending on the length of the trough. The first wave to hit land is not always the largest. Frequently, it is the second or third wave that will prove to be the most destructive.
The distance a tsunami can travel inland once it hits the coast depends on the size of the wave and the slope of the land. The size of the wave is expressed as runup, a term meaning the height of the wave over mean high tide. In flat, low-lying areas, a major tsunami with a runup of 30 feet or more can reach areas 2 miles or more from the shoreline with devastating power.
If you are on or near the coastline when a tsunami warning is issued by your local authorities, follow evacuation directions and clear the area immediately. If you hang around to see how big the wave is, and then try to outrun it, you are almost certain to lose the race and your life.
An Economic Tsunami Lies Ahead - Prepare For This Perfect Storm - Your Way of Life Depends on It!
By Keith Springer
America is at a crossroads. Economic fundamentals, market cycles and demographic trends are all converging that threaten the long term economic prosperity to which we Americans have become accustomed. The combination of Baby Boomers passing their peak spending years, a record number of Americans retiring and a government in crises over how to pay for it, is brewing up a storm of epic proportions which will affect the way you live. Few will see it coming, but those that are prepared will prosper, while those that are not will endure tremendous financial and personal hardship. Your financial well being and ultimately your way of life depend on you being ready for the ensuing Economic Tsunami, this Perfect Storm.
Very soon, the 78 million baby boomers will pass their peak spending years and head into retirement. It's an important time because America is a nation driven by consumer spending. Personal consumption, or what people do as consumers, represents over 70% of the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and how people as consumers spend their money is the largest influence on our economic health. Economic boom times are associated with an increasing size of the mid-forties population, because this is the age people spend the most, and bust times are associated with a decreasing size of this population. As larger groups of consumers age and spend more, the economy grows. In turn, when these groups pass their peak spending years, the economy slows....dramatically.
Charts 1 & 2: Change in Family Spending at Each Age
As you see in the charts above, people spend money in very predictable patterns, at very predictable times in their lives. These spending patterns directly impact our economy, business and product trends. Everything from the demand for potato chips and real estate to inflation rates, economic growth, immigration rates, and domestic migration - locally, nationally and globally are affected. By analyzing this information we can successfully forecast how spending will change in the years and decades to come. Economists will continue to fret about the "over-extended" consumers and the dire consequences to come, however the boom in consumer spending will continue until Baby Boomers see their children finish their high school years and move out. How do we know all this? Demographics!
Demographics - The Ultimate Forecasting Tool:
Demographics target the finer segments of consumers by age, income and lifestyles all the way down to zip codes and neighborhood blocks. It predicts what new generations of consumers will do as they age, and it can similarly help us see key trends that will affect our future decades in advance. The life insurance industry was the first to use this data for actuarial predictions, to assess risk when creating life insurance policies.
The study of how demographics can be used to predict stock market trends was pioneered by renowned economist Harry S. Dent Jr., founder of the "Dent Method", an economic forecasting approach that applies fundamental demographic trends to key economic factors. Dent has the only documented record of success at forecasting long term economic trends.
As we see in charts 1 & 2, people do predictable things as they age. Between 18-47 we go through several stages of life. From just entering the workforce at 18-22 years of age, to getting married between ages 22-30, the spending cycle is accelerated by the apartments and new stores that these new households generate. Children soon follow and we then purchase our first home from about ages 31-42 - the stage at which we incur the most debt - and buy the most potato chips because your 14-year old is eating you out of house and home. Our spending continues to increase as we purchase our next home, more furnishings and cars, etc. until about age 47 as our kids reach their late teenage years and are still living in the household.
As we reach 50 the kids leave home. At this point, apart from that dream car at 54 and the expensive wine at 56, we begin to spend less, paying down debts, and saving more for retirement. After age 50 we tend to reduce spending for the rest of our lives, allowing growth in savings and investments. Income doesn't decrease, but spending usually does. The peak rate of investment generally occurs at age 54, which continues into retirement at around age 63. Net worth typically peaks just after age of death, currently 78. With quantifiable data on all of the key things we do as we age, trends are largely predictable decades into the future - locally, nationally and globally!
Consider the following events that looked like they would seriously derail the economy, but couldn't!
do we go through these incredible obstacles and yet spend more? These disasters and threats are not what we base our spending decisions on. Families have needs that must be taken care of regardless of the current market conditions. The age and stage of life determine spending patterns. As we move through stages of life which correspond with different ages, we change our spending in very predictable ways. What we buy at each stage is predictable and consistent. This information can be used to forecast how spending will change in the years and decades to come. To see the actual spending stages of the population, we must look at the Adjusted Birth Index.
Birth Rate and the Immigration: The Adjusted Birth Index
Spending cycles can be forecasted by moving forward the birth index (adjusted for immigration) by the appropriate number of yours to correlate with the size of the late forties population.
If we plot the size of the late forties age group with the projected year, we see the rising trend of peaks and troughs in spending due to past variations in birth and immigration rates (Chart 3). For example, fewer babies were born during the Great Depression than either before or afterward. Thus, we would expect that 48 years later (during the 1970's) there would be less middle age people, thus the stagnant 1970's.
Chart 3: Generation Cycles -- Immigration-Adjusted Birth Index
As you can see in the chart above, Generation X (the baby boomers' children) are barely 1/3 the size of the Baby Boomer generation (1946-1964). From this we bear witness to a very alarming fact; there just physically are not enough people in Generation X to keep up the pace of spending set by the Baby Boomers! To see its impact, we must look at The Spending Wave.
The Spending Wave
The effect of people in their peak spending years is viewed within the spending wave. The chart below illustrates the birth index when moved forward by 47 years to our peak age of spending.
Charts 4 & 5: The Spending Wave and Generational Spending Trends
An economic boom is not just created by the rise of spending (demand), but also the simultaneous rise of productivity (supply) from an efficient maturing generation. This generates rising stock prices from higher earnings and rising valuations, along with low inflation. When they leave the workforce, they are replaced with a less efficient workforce which leads to decreasing productivity with increasing inflation. The next cycle occurs once the spenders are gone, leading to decreasing prices for goods and services causing deflation.
When the massive Baby Boomer generation finally passes its' peak spending years, spending will slow, earnings will decline and stock valuations will fall dramatically. We have already seen this effect on real estate, which likely will not rebound until 2012-2015 when the Echo-Boomers begin to buy their first homes. There are just not enough people to absorb the homes of the current generation. To make matters even worse, retiring boomers will be living off of their assets and subsequently selling assets in a declining market, forcing them to sell more to just to get the same amount of money. Add in a Social Security and Medicare system that will be beyond their breaking points to service this swell of retirees, and the government will be forced to raise taxes regardless of who is in the White House...A perfect storm.
Why does this matter?
In managing your finances, it is important to have a reasonable idea of what your expenses will be, especially in retirement. How will economic and demographic trends and inflation affect those expenses? A financial plan that assumes rising consumer prices will look very different from one that assumes stagnant or falling prices. A portfolio of bonds and cash would be decimated by a period of prolonged inflation, but it would be very profitable during a deflationary period. On the other hand, a portfolio of stocks and commodities should do relatively well in keeping pace with inflation but would be catastrophic during a period of deflation. Naturally, having a viable economic forecast that takes these factors into account is an essential part of building your financial plan.
The single most important financial decision you will make in the next ten years will be your money management style and the asset allocation you choose as our economic cycles shift. Choose well and you will be able to enjoy the products and services you buy at a lower cost, while watching your nest egg grow. Choose poorly and your nest egg will decline and you will see your purchasing power erode away. A veritable personal Perfect Storm. In the ensuing Bear Market, millions of Americans will lose their life savings - don't be one of them.
Be the expert.....or hire one!
Personal finance is serious business. In planning your life, and especially your money, you need to get the fundamentals down pat and spend a lifetime keeping up on the subject, just as we have. With the right preparation and advice, you will be able to better understand the nature of the problems ahead that will be essential for preserving and even increasing your wealth. For a complimentary review of your finances and to ensure you are financially prepared for the drastic economic and demographic changes ahead, contact me today.
In Conclusion
As my long time clients will attest, I am not a perpetual Bear, a doom and gloom pessimist or a non-believer in the American way. To the contrary, I have been Bullish for most of my 25 years in the industry. I believe America is the greatest nation the world has ever known, and there is nothing in our future that we cannot overcome. Naturally, I hope these predictions are wrong, but we simply cannot take that chance and not be prepared. The media would have you believe that headlines move markets, and nobody knows what is going to be the next "most-important-thing-ever" to the media. What I do know is that, as powerful as wars, hurricanes, and oil spikes might be, the spending cycle will continue to dominate the economy. When the Baby Boomer boom ends, it will be vital to your way of life that you know when and what to do as well as how to invest to protect yourself and your family, and to profit from it. Regardless of the economic conditions, we will be ready for our clients.
America is at a crossroads. Economic fundamentals, market cycles and demographic trends are all converging that threaten the long term economic prosperity to which we Americans have become accustomed. The combination of Baby Boomers passing their peak spending years, a record number of Americans retiring and a government in crises over how to pay for it, is brewing up a storm of epic proportions which will affect the way you live. Few will see it coming, but those that are prepared will prosper, while those that are not will endure tremendous financial and personal hardship. Your financial well being and ultimately your way of life depend on you being ready for the ensuing Economic Tsunami, this Perfect Storm.
Very soon, the 78 million baby boomers will pass their peak spending years and head into retirement. It's an important time because America is a nation driven by consumer spending. Personal consumption, or what people do as consumers, represents over 70% of the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and how people as consumers spend their money is the largest influence on our economic health. Economic boom times are associated with an increasing size of the mid-forties population, because this is the age people spend the most, and bust times are associated with a decreasing size of this population. As larger groups of consumers age and spend more, the economy grows. In turn, when these groups pass their peak spending years, the economy slows....dramatically.
Charts 1 & 2: Change in Family Spending at Each Age
As you see in the charts above, people spend money in very predictable patterns, at very predictable times in their lives. These spending patterns directly impact our economy, business and product trends. Everything from the demand for potato chips and real estate to inflation rates, economic growth, immigration rates, and domestic migration - locally, nationally and globally are affected. By analyzing this information we can successfully forecast how spending will change in the years and decades to come. Economists will continue to fret about the "over-extended" consumers and the dire consequences to come, however the boom in consumer spending will continue until Baby Boomers see their children finish their high school years and move out. How do we know all this? Demographics!
Demographics - The Ultimate Forecasting Tool:
Demographics target the finer segments of consumers by age, income and lifestyles all the way down to zip codes and neighborhood blocks. It predicts what new generations of consumers will do as they age, and it can similarly help us see key trends that will affect our future decades in advance. The life insurance industry was the first to use this data for actuarial predictions, to assess risk when creating life insurance policies.
The study of how demographics can be used to predict stock market trends was pioneered by renowned economist Harry S. Dent Jr., founder of the "Dent Method", an economic forecasting approach that applies fundamental demographic trends to key economic factors. Dent has the only documented record of success at forecasting long term economic trends.
As we see in charts 1 & 2, people do predictable things as they age. Between 18-47 we go through several stages of life. From just entering the workforce at 18-22 years of age, to getting married between ages 22-30, the spending cycle is accelerated by the apartments and new stores that these new households generate. Children soon follow and we then purchase our first home from about ages 31-42 - the stage at which we incur the most debt - and buy the most potato chips because your 14-year old is eating you out of house and home. Our spending continues to increase as we purchase our next home, more furnishings and cars, etc. until about age 47 as our kids reach their late teenage years and are still living in the household.
As we reach 50 the kids leave home. At this point, apart from that dream car at 54 and the expensive wine at 56, we begin to spend less, paying down debts, and saving more for retirement. After age 50 we tend to reduce spending for the rest of our lives, allowing growth in savings and investments. Income doesn't decrease, but spending usually does. The peak rate of investment generally occurs at age 54, which continues into retirement at around age 63. Net worth typically peaks just after age of death, currently 78. With quantifiable data on all of the key things we do as we age, trends are largely predictable decades into the future - locally, nationally and globally!
Consider the following events that looked like they would seriously derail the economy, but couldn't!
do we go through these incredible obstacles and yet spend more? These disasters and threats are not what we base our spending decisions on. Families have needs that must be taken care of regardless of the current market conditions. The age and stage of life determine spending patterns. As we move through stages of life which correspond with different ages, we change our spending in very predictable ways. What we buy at each stage is predictable and consistent. This information can be used to forecast how spending will change in the years and decades to come. To see the actual spending stages of the population, we must look at the Adjusted Birth Index.
Birth Rate and the Immigration: The Adjusted Birth Index
Spending cycles can be forecasted by moving forward the birth index (adjusted for immigration) by the appropriate number of yours to correlate with the size of the late forties population.
If we plot the size of the late forties age group with the projected year, we see the rising trend of peaks and troughs in spending due to past variations in birth and immigration rates (Chart 3). For example, fewer babies were born during the Great Depression than either before or afterward. Thus, we would expect that 48 years later (during the 1970's) there would be less middle age people, thus the stagnant 1970's.
Chart 3: Generation Cycles -- Immigration-Adjusted Birth Index
As you can see in the chart above, Generation X (the baby boomers' children) are barely 1/3 the size of the Baby Boomer generation (1946-1964). From this we bear witness to a very alarming fact; there just physically are not enough people in Generation X to keep up the pace of spending set by the Baby Boomers! To see its impact, we must look at The Spending Wave.
The Spending Wave
The effect of people in their peak spending years is viewed within the spending wave. The chart below illustrates the birth index when moved forward by 47 years to our peak age of spending.
Charts 4 & 5: The Spending Wave and Generational Spending Trends
An economic boom is not just created by the rise of spending (demand), but also the simultaneous rise of productivity (supply) from an efficient maturing generation. This generates rising stock prices from higher earnings and rising valuations, along with low inflation. When they leave the workforce, they are replaced with a less efficient workforce which leads to decreasing productivity with increasing inflation. The next cycle occurs once the spenders are gone, leading to decreasing prices for goods and services causing deflation.
When the massive Baby Boomer generation finally passes its' peak spending years, spending will slow, earnings will decline and stock valuations will fall dramatically. We have already seen this effect on real estate, which likely will not rebound until 2012-2015 when the Echo-Boomers begin to buy their first homes. There are just not enough people to absorb the homes of the current generation. To make matters even worse, retiring boomers will be living off of their assets and subsequently selling assets in a declining market, forcing them to sell more to just to get the same amount of money. Add in a Social Security and Medicare system that will be beyond their breaking points to service this swell of retirees, and the government will be forced to raise taxes regardless of who is in the White House...A perfect storm.
Why does this matter?
In managing your finances, it is important to have a reasonable idea of what your expenses will be, especially in retirement. How will economic and demographic trends and inflation affect those expenses? A financial plan that assumes rising consumer prices will look very different from one that assumes stagnant or falling prices. A portfolio of bonds and cash would be decimated by a period of prolonged inflation, but it would be very profitable during a deflationary period. On the other hand, a portfolio of stocks and commodities should do relatively well in keeping pace with inflation but would be catastrophic during a period of deflation. Naturally, having a viable economic forecast that takes these factors into account is an essential part of building your financial plan.
The single most important financial decision you will make in the next ten years will be your money management style and the asset allocation you choose as our economic cycles shift. Choose well and you will be able to enjoy the products and services you buy at a lower cost, while watching your nest egg grow. Choose poorly and your nest egg will decline and you will see your purchasing power erode away. A veritable personal Perfect Storm. In the ensuing Bear Market, millions of Americans will lose their life savings - don't be one of them.
Be the expert.....or hire one!
Personal finance is serious business. In planning your life, and especially your money, you need to get the fundamentals down pat and spend a lifetime keeping up on the subject, just as we have. With the right preparation and advice, you will be able to better understand the nature of the problems ahead that will be essential for preserving and even increasing your wealth. For a complimentary review of your finances and to ensure you are financially prepared for the drastic economic and demographic changes ahead, contact me today.
In Conclusion
As my long time clients will attest, I am not a perpetual Bear, a doom and gloom pessimist or a non-believer in the American way. To the contrary, I have been Bullish for most of my 25 years in the industry. I believe America is the greatest nation the world has ever known, and there is nothing in our future that we cannot overcome. Naturally, I hope these predictions are wrong, but we simply cannot take that chance and not be prepared. The media would have you believe that headlines move markets, and nobody knows what is going to be the next "most-important-thing-ever" to the media. What I do know is that, as powerful as wars, hurricanes, and oil spikes might be, the spending cycle will continue to dominate the economy. When the Baby Boomer boom ends, it will be vital to your way of life that you know when and what to do as well as how to invest to protect yourself and your family, and to profit from it. Regardless of the economic conditions, we will be ready for our clients.
What Is a Tsunami And What Causes It?
By Tasha Stones
A series of great sea waves generated by sudden underwater disturbances that displace a large volume of water mass from its equilibrium position is referred to as a tsunami. Tsunamis typically occur in oceans and seas but can occur in large lakes as well. Tsunami is not just one wave but the so-called "a wave train" - a series of waves that can be as long as 60 miles which may even sounds like a freight train.
Tsunamis are most often triggered by massive changes to the sea floor. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, explosions, underwater nuclear tests and, more rarely, impacts of cosmic bodies, such as meteorites or asteroids, i.e. any disturbance above or below the sea floor, have the potential to generate a tsunami. This usually happens when the sea floor abruptly deforms. The water above the deformed area is displaced from its equilibrium position and may cause the sea to rise vertically as high as 100 feet (30 meters). Tectonic earthquakes are a typical kind of underwater disturbance that displaces the overlying water mass which, under the influence of gravity, tends to regain its balance. This unexpected movement of the water creates a series of powerful waves. Subduction earthquakes are vertical movements of the earth's crust at plate boundaries and the slipping of oceanic plates under continental plates may also trigger a tsunami. Large earthquakes are often followed by submarine landslides that can disturb the overlaying water, too. Tsunamis may also be generated by submarine volcanic eruptions as well as by collapses of volcanic edifices. Underwater nuclear testing can trigger tsunamis but underground testing can trigger them as well. Unlike these, supermarine landslides and cosmic body impacts disturb the water from above. However, the tsunamis generated this way dissipate quickly and rarely affect coastlines distant from the source area.
Tsunamis generated in the deep ocean can sometimes be unnoticed on the surface. They can cross an entire ocean in a single day at speeds up to 500 mph (800 kmph) without losing much energy. Once a tsunami reaches the shore, its power is devastating. The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 is said to have a devastating power of 23,000 atomic bombs. However, the first wave may not be the most dangerous. The waves can be several minutes to an hour apart and the danger from a tsunami can last for several hours after the arrival of the first wave.
Tsunamis are most often triggered by massive changes to the sea floor. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, explosions, underwater nuclear tests and, more rarely, impacts of cosmic bodies, such as meteorites or asteroids, i.e. any disturbance above or below the sea floor, have the potential to generate a tsunami. This usually happens when the sea floor abruptly deforms. The water above the deformed area is displaced from its equilibrium position and may cause the sea to rise vertically as high as 100 feet (30 meters). Tectonic earthquakes are a typical kind of underwater disturbance that displaces the overlying water mass which, under the influence of gravity, tends to regain its balance. This unexpected movement of the water creates a series of powerful waves. Subduction earthquakes are vertical movements of the earth's crust at plate boundaries and the slipping of oceanic plates under continental plates may also trigger a tsunami. Large earthquakes are often followed by submarine landslides that can disturb the overlaying water, too. Tsunamis may also be generated by submarine volcanic eruptions as well as by collapses of volcanic edifices. Underwater nuclear testing can trigger tsunamis but underground testing can trigger them as well. Unlike these, supermarine landslides and cosmic body impacts disturb the water from above. However, the tsunamis generated this way dissipate quickly and rarely affect coastlines distant from the source area.
Tsunamis generated in the deep ocean can sometimes be unnoticed on the surface. They can cross an entire ocean in a single day at speeds up to 500 mph (800 kmph) without losing much energy. Once a tsunami reaches the shore, its power is devastating. The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 is said to have a devastating power of 23,000 atomic bombs. However, the first wave may not be the most dangerous. The waves can be several minutes to an hour apart and the danger from a tsunami can last for several hours after the arrival of the first wave.
Oregon Man Enters Darwin Award Competition Via Tsunami
By Skip Conover
The world needs education on the power of a tsunami, so it's time to review once again what a tsunami is. It is not a big sea wave. I'm mentioning those swells we can body or board surf on, and that go right by us at the beach. No it is not!
A tsunami is first and foremost an energy wave transferred through the sea at the speed of a jumbo jet. Remember that if you jump off a 150-foot tall bridge, when you hit the water it is like hitting concrete. Why? Because water doesn't change its shape quickly enough to accommodate the velocity of the falling body and that body is falling at less than 100 miles per hour.
A tsunami is going 500 miles per hour. To understand the phenomenon, imagine you have a brick on a table in front of you. Put your left hand palm inward on the left side of the brick. Now slap the brick lightly with your right hand. You will see that the energy of your right hand slap is immediately transferred to your left hand.
Now imagine the Pacific Ocean as a giant brick and an earthquake as that hand slap. The energy passes across that "brick" at nearly the speed of sound, approximately 500 miles per hour. Sailors at sea don't even notice it, because it is passing through the entire volume of the water beneath them. As that energy approaches shore it focuses, and raises the level of the sea itself, sometimes hundreds of feet.
Still another way to think of it is to use a cake pan and fill it with water to the brim. Now tip it ever so slightly and the water pours out, not in a wave but a rush. That is what happens when a major earthquake moves seawater. This is why tsunamis are sometimes referred to as tidal waves. Because they seem more like a tide, raising a number of feet in a few minutes rather than the customary six hours. As we all saw on March 11, 2011, the speed of the water rise makes a difference.
Which all brings me around to the Oregon and California men, who thought it would be fun to go out and photograph or surf the tsunami. The photographer in Oregon is now a candidate for the Darwin Award because he eliminated himself from the gene pool in such an extraordinarily foolish manner that he improved the chance of the long-term survival of the species. He was apparently the only American to die on America's coast from Japan's worst earthquake in over a century.
CNN gave us video of a California man, who thought it would be exciting to surf the tsunami. He's not a Darwin Award candidate this time, because the tsunami was not 100 feet high. But if he does that again, he might well achieve the goal.
The world needs education on the power of a tsunami, so it's time to review once again what a tsunami is. It is not a big sea wave. I'm mentioning those swells we can body or board surf on, and that go right by us at the beach. No it is not!
A tsunami is first and foremost an energy wave transferred through the sea at the speed of a jumbo jet. Remember that if you jump off a 150-foot tall bridge, when you hit the water it is like hitting concrete. Why? Because water doesn't change its shape quickly enough to accommodate the velocity of the falling body and that body is falling at less than 100 miles per hour.
A tsunami is going 500 miles per hour. To understand the phenomenon, imagine you have a brick on a table in front of you. Put your left hand palm inward on the left side of the brick. Now slap the brick lightly with your right hand. You will see that the energy of your right hand slap is immediately transferred to your left hand.
Now imagine the Pacific Ocean as a giant brick and an earthquake as that hand slap. The energy passes across that "brick" at nearly the speed of sound, approximately 500 miles per hour. Sailors at sea don't even notice it, because it is passing through the entire volume of the water beneath them. As that energy approaches shore it focuses, and raises the level of the sea itself, sometimes hundreds of feet.
Still another way to think of it is to use a cake pan and fill it with water to the brim. Now tip it ever so slightly and the water pours out, not in a wave but a rush. That is what happens when a major earthquake moves seawater. This is why tsunamis are sometimes referred to as tidal waves. Because they seem more like a tide, raising a number of feet in a few minutes rather than the customary six hours. As we all saw on March 11, 2011, the speed of the water rise makes a difference.
Which all brings me around to the Oregon and California men, who thought it would be fun to go out and photograph or surf the tsunami. The photographer in Oregon is now a candidate for the Darwin Award because he eliminated himself from the gene pool in such an extraordinarily foolish manner that he improved the chance of the long-term survival of the species. He was apparently the only American to die on America's coast from Japan's worst earthquake in over a century.
CNN gave us video of a California man, who thought it would be exciting to surf the tsunami. He's not a Darwin Award candidate this time, because the tsunami was not 100 feet high. But if he does that again, he might well achieve the goal.
Danger in the Pacific - The Samoa Tsunami
By Ryan W. Campbell
With the help of my colleague, Alex Molina, I recently wrote about the realistic danger that tsunamis posed to the west coast of the United States.
I had vastly underestimated the damage a tsunami can do, and the last two days, after reading about the 8.3 magnitude earthquake and tsunami that followed, I also got to watch the Pacific Ocean's tsunami warning system in action.
In the case of Samoa, American Samoa, and Tonga, the earthquake's epicenter and aftershocks were in some cases less than 100 miles from the coastlines. This meant that the early warning system had little time to warn anyone. At this time, over 111 people are reported missing or dead from the three Pacific territories, and that count is expected to be considerably higher once emergency personnel make it to hard to access, outlying areas. In some cases, the waves came as far as a mile inland.
From reports from the wire services and people I've talked to in American Samoa, the only immediate warning for the tsunami most people received were the cell phone calls made by forward-thinking family. Common sense dictated that if an earthquake was both near enough and powerful enough to damage buildings, a tsunami was on its way. While many villages were literally swept completely into the Pacific Ocean, most people managed to get to high ground and escaped with their lives.
In the future, these three areas, particularly American Samoa, since it is under jurisdiction of FEMA and the US Government, will have to improve their Tsunami warning system up to the high standard set by the state of Oregon, which includes blue sirens all along the coast, and regularly scheduled tsunami drills in all the public schools.
Now for the good news
Otherwise, the new system in the Pacific seems to be working well. In all fairness, the tsunami that hit American Samoa was practically a point-blank shot and we did not have the benefit of the buoys to warn us of what was coming. Once the tsunami had time to move out and start hitting buoys, however, we had a clear picture of when the waves would hit Hawaii, Japan, the west coast of the United States, and other Pacific area at risk.
Warnings were made well in advance, and ships were able to seek deeper, safer waters, tsunami watches and warnings went into effect, and quickly out of effect, once the NOAA knew the waves had lost considerable power and size and represented little threat.
Even in far away, Venice Beach, California, lifeguards advised people to get out of the water in advance of the waves, and the tsunami showed up right on time. Apparently there wasn't much punch left, but I'm sure the state of California is relieved. Still, the unfortunate and low lying town of Crescent City, California was battered by a 1.5 foot peak over normal tides - a size comparable to the largest waves to hit Hawaii after the quake. State officials, knowing the town's vulnerability to tsunamis, were able to take the right precautions, however, and other than a scare to the local fish, no one was harmed and no property damage was reported.
Putting this into perspective
As we speak, a much deadlier weather event has left over 300 dead and thousands homeless, as Typhoon Ketsana has slammed into the Philippines, Vietnam and Cambodia. As much as 80% of Manila is underwater. A second quake hit Indonesia today, a 7.6 magnitude quake, scaring everyone up into the hills. Considering it was an 8.0 quake in the same area that prompted the 2004 Tsunami of infamy, I can't say they overreacted. If I felt a strong earthquake on any coastline, I would hightail it at least a mile into the hills as well.
The tsunami that resulted from it was less that a foot, smaller than what hit Hawaii or Crescent City, California from the Samoa earthquake. Officials were able to call off the warnings and people soon returned to their normal lives.
In the world of extreme weather events, we can only still guess at exactly what a hurricane will do or where it will go. This is true of many weather events, be they floods, tornadoes, even a wildfire. Earthquakes are the worst of all, and give no warning, but unless you are close to the epicenter, tsunamis are at least predictable in the Pacific, thanks to the work of the US and Japanese governments.
At this point in time, we have the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, headquartered in Hawaii, that watches all the tidal buoys in the Pacific Ocean at all times and gives us a very clear picture of what is going on out there. While they can't do much to warn of a tsunami when it first starts it's trek from the ocean floor, they certainly can track it within a few minutes of when it will land.
My heart goes out to the victims of Typhoon Ketsana and the recent Samoan tsunami, but I'm relieved that our relatively new typhoon tracking system has seen it's first real test.
Many scientists agree that at some point in the 21st century, we will see a quake and tsunami on the scale of the Cascadian Tsunami from 300 years ago. Without a working warning system in place, the results could be far worse than the Indonesian Tsunami of 2004.
Now that our tidal warning system has seen a full dress rehearsal, I feel much better about being prepared if the big one does indeed come.
For those who are interested, you can read my writeup from last week, Tsunamis in America: Can They Happen Here? Part 1.
I had vastly underestimated the damage a tsunami can do, and the last two days, after reading about the 8.3 magnitude earthquake and tsunami that followed, I also got to watch the Pacific Ocean's tsunami warning system in action.
In the case of Samoa, American Samoa, and Tonga, the earthquake's epicenter and aftershocks were in some cases less than 100 miles from the coastlines. This meant that the early warning system had little time to warn anyone. At this time, over 111 people are reported missing or dead from the three Pacific territories, and that count is expected to be considerably higher once emergency personnel make it to hard to access, outlying areas. In some cases, the waves came as far as a mile inland.
From reports from the wire services and people I've talked to in American Samoa, the only immediate warning for the tsunami most people received were the cell phone calls made by forward-thinking family. Common sense dictated that if an earthquake was both near enough and powerful enough to damage buildings, a tsunami was on its way. While many villages were literally swept completely into the Pacific Ocean, most people managed to get to high ground and escaped with their lives.
In the future, these three areas, particularly American Samoa, since it is under jurisdiction of FEMA and the US Government, will have to improve their Tsunami warning system up to the high standard set by the state of Oregon, which includes blue sirens all along the coast, and regularly scheduled tsunami drills in all the public schools.
Now for the good news
Otherwise, the new system in the Pacific seems to be working well. In all fairness, the tsunami that hit American Samoa was practically a point-blank shot and we did not have the benefit of the buoys to warn us of what was coming. Once the tsunami had time to move out and start hitting buoys, however, we had a clear picture of when the waves would hit Hawaii, Japan, the west coast of the United States, and other Pacific area at risk.
Warnings were made well in advance, and ships were able to seek deeper, safer waters, tsunami watches and warnings went into effect, and quickly out of effect, once the NOAA knew the waves had lost considerable power and size and represented little threat.
Even in far away, Venice Beach, California, lifeguards advised people to get out of the water in advance of the waves, and the tsunami showed up right on time. Apparently there wasn't much punch left, but I'm sure the state of California is relieved. Still, the unfortunate and low lying town of Crescent City, California was battered by a 1.5 foot peak over normal tides - a size comparable to the largest waves to hit Hawaii after the quake. State officials, knowing the town's vulnerability to tsunamis, were able to take the right precautions, however, and other than a scare to the local fish, no one was harmed and no property damage was reported.
Putting this into perspective
As we speak, a much deadlier weather event has left over 300 dead and thousands homeless, as Typhoon Ketsana has slammed into the Philippines, Vietnam and Cambodia. As much as 80% of Manila is underwater. A second quake hit Indonesia today, a 7.6 magnitude quake, scaring everyone up into the hills. Considering it was an 8.0 quake in the same area that prompted the 2004 Tsunami of infamy, I can't say they overreacted. If I felt a strong earthquake on any coastline, I would hightail it at least a mile into the hills as well.
The tsunami that resulted from it was less that a foot, smaller than what hit Hawaii or Crescent City, California from the Samoa earthquake. Officials were able to call off the warnings and people soon returned to their normal lives.
In the world of extreme weather events, we can only still guess at exactly what a hurricane will do or where it will go. This is true of many weather events, be they floods, tornadoes, even a wildfire. Earthquakes are the worst of all, and give no warning, but unless you are close to the epicenter, tsunamis are at least predictable in the Pacific, thanks to the work of the US and Japanese governments.
At this point in time, we have the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, headquartered in Hawaii, that watches all the tidal buoys in the Pacific Ocean at all times and gives us a very clear picture of what is going on out there. While they can't do much to warn of a tsunami when it first starts it's trek from the ocean floor, they certainly can track it within a few minutes of when it will land.
My heart goes out to the victims of Typhoon Ketsana and the recent Samoan tsunami, but I'm relieved that our relatively new typhoon tracking system has seen it's first real test.
Many scientists agree that at some point in the 21st century, we will see a quake and tsunami on the scale of the Cascadian Tsunami from 300 years ago. Without a working warning system in place, the results could be far worse than the Indonesian Tsunami of 2004.
Now that our tidal warning system has seen a full dress rehearsal, I feel much better about being prepared if the big one does indeed come.
For those who are interested, you can read my writeup from last week, Tsunamis in America: Can They Happen Here? Part 1.
What is a Tsunami?
By James Anthony Harris
On 27 August 1883, a strong eruption almost destroyed the island of Karakoa. From this powerful explosion huge waves arose from the Ocean. The waves reached a height of 30 metres above sea level and managed to wipe out hundreds of villages with speeds of 1000 km per hour. People felt the after effects thousands of miles away in Australia and Canada.
In 1946, a big earthquake occurred at the bottom of the Ocean near the Aleutian Islands. One gigantic wave travelled over more than 3500 kilometres in only 4.5 hours and hit Hawaii. It threw houses and bridges in the air, and carried them hundreds of metres away. At that time 170 people drowned.
A tsunami like the ones described above is ranked high on the scale of natural disasters. Tsunami's waves are waves prompted by earthquakes. They don't look like common ocean waves which we can see near the coast, and they have nothing in common with wind and tides.
Scientists give a special name to these waves. They call them by the Japanese name tsunami. Tsunami means harbour waves. An earthquake wave or tsunami is triggered by some disturbance of the sea bottom, usually because of an earthquake at the bottom of the ocean. However, volcanic eruptions, some underwater explosions, landslides, mass movements above and under the water can lead to a tsunami.
After a disturbance, the ocean floor can suddenly rise or sink; the mass of water above it also rises or sinks. This strange movement of the water makes a series of strong waves. The first wave travels through the water the same as sound travels through the air. It goes really fast without losing energy. In the open ocean a tsunami can reach speeds of up to 950 kilometers per hour. When it approaches land, speed reduces and the height of the waves goes up. It increases in size and reaches places that normal high tides could never reach.
A tsunami can last for several hours or several days depending of its location. A tsunami is so powerful that it can strip off sand from beaches, pull off roofs and crush buildings. People and boats can do nothing about a tsunami. A tsunami cannot be prevented, but the impact can be reduced with community preparedness, timely warnings and effective emergency response. For example in Aonae, Japan 10 minutes after the earthquake tsunami started, many casualties were avoided as they were educated about tsunamis, they had developed evacuation plans, and above all, a warning was issued.
In 1946, a big earthquake occurred at the bottom of the Ocean near the Aleutian Islands. One gigantic wave travelled over more than 3500 kilometres in only 4.5 hours and hit Hawaii. It threw houses and bridges in the air, and carried them hundreds of metres away. At that time 170 people drowned.
A tsunami like the ones described above is ranked high on the scale of natural disasters. Tsunami's waves are waves prompted by earthquakes. They don't look like common ocean waves which we can see near the coast, and they have nothing in common with wind and tides.
Scientists give a special name to these waves. They call them by the Japanese name tsunami. Tsunami means harbour waves. An earthquake wave or tsunami is triggered by some disturbance of the sea bottom, usually because of an earthquake at the bottom of the ocean. However, volcanic eruptions, some underwater explosions, landslides, mass movements above and under the water can lead to a tsunami.
After a disturbance, the ocean floor can suddenly rise or sink; the mass of water above it also rises or sinks. This strange movement of the water makes a series of strong waves. The first wave travels through the water the same as sound travels through the air. It goes really fast without losing energy. In the open ocean a tsunami can reach speeds of up to 950 kilometers per hour. When it approaches land, speed reduces and the height of the waves goes up. It increases in size and reaches places that normal high tides could never reach.
A tsunami can last for several hours or several days depending of its location. A tsunami is so powerful that it can strip off sand from beaches, pull off roofs and crush buildings. People and boats can do nothing about a tsunami. A tsunami cannot be prevented, but the impact can be reduced with community preparedness, timely warnings and effective emergency response. For example in Aonae, Japan 10 minutes after the earthquake tsunami started, many casualties were avoided as they were educated about tsunamis, they had developed evacuation plans, and above all, a warning was issued.
Surviving a Tsunami - The Samoa Experience in October 2009
By Ulu Aiono
If I think about surviving a tsunami I also think it will happen to somebody else -- not me. But on 2 October 2009 Samoan families and foreign tourists were shocked and shattered by the speed of the tsunami that roared over the reefs, lagoons and low, flat, plains of villages and resorts on the south coast of Upolu island. Drowned. Dead. Missing. Destroyed. Every family, local and tourist, lost something. One local family lost 35 members to drownings and injuries. How do you survive a tsunami.
Can you survive a tsunami?
It depends. You have to get to a location that is out of reach of the tsunami. You can be out of reach by getting to ground that is high enough. You can also be so far inland, on flat terrain, away from the coast, that a tsunami's force will be exhausted before it reaches your location.
In 2004 thousands of Bali citizens and tourists were drowned, or otherwise killed, by a huge tsunami that swamped hundreds of kilometers of Bali's coastline. Nevertheless some tourists and locals survived by running inland, along with wildlife, far enough to escape the full force of the Bali tsunami. Those survivors were lucky. So were some of the Samoa tsunami survivors in October 2009. Some survived despited the tsunami catching them on the flat, coastal, plains of Samoa's Upolu island. They survived by sheer good luck because -- along with those who were killed -- they were caught by the full force of the tsunami and somehow managed to hold onto a tree or object without being fatally injured by tumbling cars, trees, concrete, logs and other flotsam in the roiling waters.
A typical wave of water is like any wave in that it has an amplitude (distance from top of crest to bottom of trough) and a frequency (number of crests passing a fixed point in one second). In normal weather conditions you can count the waves coming onto a beach. Some waves are small. Some waves are big (that is they have a large amplitude). During one minute, sometimes 30 waves will break on the beach. This means the frequency is 30 waves divided by 60 seconds which equals 0.5 waves per second. At other times you might see 60 waves break on a beach -- in one minute. Then the frequency would be 1 wave per second. The greater the frequency the more the number of waves.
A tsunami's destructive force is caused by its extremely low frequency. For example, a tsunami wave that takes three minutes to pass fixed point will have a frequency of 1 wave divided by 180 seconds which equals 1/180 waves per second. That is a very long wave. It contains a lot of water. Tonnes of water. Tsunami observers and survivors call it "a wall of water." In one minute the weight of water passing a fixed point is 160 tonnes if the water is a one meter wide wall of water that is one meter high and moving at 1 kilometer per hour. If the same wall of water is 100 meters wide then 16,00 tonnes of water will land on the beach in one minute. If the wall of water is 100 meters wide and moving at 10 kilometers per hour (not 1 km/hr) then the same 100 meters wide (and 1 meter deep) wall of water will throw 160,000 tonnes of water onto the beach in one minute. That is a lot of water and the associated force will pulverise most things in its path. Also, that much water will roll inland, from the beach, a long way. The faster the tsunami wave travels as it lands on a beach, and the larger its amplitude, and the lower its frequency, the greater the destructive force.
I think you get the picture.
For example in the October 2009 Samoa tsunami many locals and tourists were still recovering from the magnitude 8.0 earthquake that shook the region. Barely ten minutes passed after the start of the quake. One Australian couple, holidaying on the south coast of Samoa's Upolu island had been shaken severely in their resort accommodation. Husband and wife made their way to the resort carpark so as to avoid falling debris during the earthquake. The tsunami caught the couple in the carpark. The husband hung onto his wife. As they tumbled in the roiling waters, the husband caught hold of a tree but lost his grip on his wife. She drowned. In the same tsunami on a tiny island, more of an islet, a few hundred meters off the shore at another resort on Upolu's south coast, a Kiwi school party had scrambled to high ground during the magnitude 8.0 quake. The party watched the tsunami sweep past their island and take all their possessions from the camp site.
A Radio New Zealand crew member described his experience of sudden fear and shock as he got up from a reclining position after watching water drain out of the big lagoon next to his beach-side hut. The crew member yelled "RUN," as he ran for his life away from the beach. Some of the people in other huts were caught. The run to high ground was not easy. There was a lot of vegetation in the way. Later, in the aftermath of the October 2009 tsunami, Samoans and locals on Upolu recounted their shock and grief. One local family lost four generations of members. One Kiwi family lost one child and re-gained two; all had been swept out to sea. Survivors, locals, Samoan police, New Zealand Army and Navy, Australian Army and Navy, worked for weeks to find the dead and drowned.
So, can you survive a tsunami. It depends. If the tsunami catches you by surprise then your survival chances are limited. Even if you are, somewhat, prepared but the vegetation and other obstacles are difficult for you to pass then your chances are limited. On the other hand, you can get lucky. Some locals were caught by the Samoan tsunami and got lucky. One woman, tossed about in the waters, caught hold of pole in the ground. She survived. And old man caught hold of a palm tree and survived. Others were not so fortunate.
Can you survive a tsunami?
It depends. You have to get to a location that is out of reach of the tsunami. You can be out of reach by getting to ground that is high enough. You can also be so far inland, on flat terrain, away from the coast, that a tsunami's force will be exhausted before it reaches your location.
In 2004 thousands of Bali citizens and tourists were drowned, or otherwise killed, by a huge tsunami that swamped hundreds of kilometers of Bali's coastline. Nevertheless some tourists and locals survived by running inland, along with wildlife, far enough to escape the full force of the Bali tsunami. Those survivors were lucky. So were some of the Samoa tsunami survivors in October 2009. Some survived despited the tsunami catching them on the flat, coastal, plains of Samoa's Upolu island. They survived by sheer good luck because -- along with those who were killed -- they were caught by the full force of the tsunami and somehow managed to hold onto a tree or object without being fatally injured by tumbling cars, trees, concrete, logs and other flotsam in the roiling waters.
A typical wave of water is like any wave in that it has an amplitude (distance from top of crest to bottom of trough) and a frequency (number of crests passing a fixed point in one second). In normal weather conditions you can count the waves coming onto a beach. Some waves are small. Some waves are big (that is they have a large amplitude). During one minute, sometimes 30 waves will break on the beach. This means the frequency is 30 waves divided by 60 seconds which equals 0.5 waves per second. At other times you might see 60 waves break on a beach -- in one minute. Then the frequency would be 1 wave per second. The greater the frequency the more the number of waves.
A tsunami's destructive force is caused by its extremely low frequency. For example, a tsunami wave that takes three minutes to pass fixed point will have a frequency of 1 wave divided by 180 seconds which equals 1/180 waves per second. That is a very long wave. It contains a lot of water. Tonnes of water. Tsunami observers and survivors call it "a wall of water." In one minute the weight of water passing a fixed point is 160 tonnes if the water is a one meter wide wall of water that is one meter high and moving at 1 kilometer per hour. If the same wall of water is 100 meters wide then 16,00 tonnes of water will land on the beach in one minute. If the wall of water is 100 meters wide and moving at 10 kilometers per hour (not 1 km/hr) then the same 100 meters wide (and 1 meter deep) wall of water will throw 160,000 tonnes of water onto the beach in one minute. That is a lot of water and the associated force will pulverise most things in its path. Also, that much water will roll inland, from the beach, a long way. The faster the tsunami wave travels as it lands on a beach, and the larger its amplitude, and the lower its frequency, the greater the destructive force.
I think you get the picture.
For example in the October 2009 Samoa tsunami many locals and tourists were still recovering from the magnitude 8.0 earthquake that shook the region. Barely ten minutes passed after the start of the quake. One Australian couple, holidaying on the south coast of Samoa's Upolu island had been shaken severely in their resort accommodation. Husband and wife made their way to the resort carpark so as to avoid falling debris during the earthquake. The tsunami caught the couple in the carpark. The husband hung onto his wife. As they tumbled in the roiling waters, the husband caught hold of a tree but lost his grip on his wife. She drowned. In the same tsunami on a tiny island, more of an islet, a few hundred meters off the shore at another resort on Upolu's south coast, a Kiwi school party had scrambled to high ground during the magnitude 8.0 quake. The party watched the tsunami sweep past their island and take all their possessions from the camp site.
A Radio New Zealand crew member described his experience of sudden fear and shock as he got up from a reclining position after watching water drain out of the big lagoon next to his beach-side hut. The crew member yelled "RUN," as he ran for his life away from the beach. Some of the people in other huts were caught. The run to high ground was not easy. There was a lot of vegetation in the way. Later, in the aftermath of the October 2009 tsunami, Samoans and locals on Upolu recounted their shock and grief. One local family lost four generations of members. One Kiwi family lost one child and re-gained two; all had been swept out to sea. Survivors, locals, Samoan police, New Zealand Army and Navy, Australian Army and Navy, worked for weeks to find the dead and drowned.
So, can you survive a tsunami. It depends. If the tsunami catches you by surprise then your survival chances are limited. Even if you are, somewhat, prepared but the vegetation and other obstacles are difficult for you to pass then your chances are limited. On the other hand, you can get lucky. Some locals were caught by the Samoan tsunami and got lucky. One woman, tossed about in the waters, caught hold of pole in the ground. She survived. And old man caught hold of a palm tree and survived. Others were not so fortunate.
The Coming Pension Tsunami
By Dev S Khalsa
It has been a double whammy for the average worker. Twenty years of free trade, globalization, offshoring and outsourcing has lost America 8.5 million good paying jobs and 42,400 businesses.
And now for the icing on the cake. For most of us there will be no retirement.
Between 1945 - 1964 almost 80,000,000 Baby Boomers were born in the US. As this wave traveled through life it has had a profound influence on society and the economy, from the building of schools and the rise of children's toy manufacturers in the 1950′s, to the student riots of the 60′s, to the sustained housing boom that started in the late 70′s and continued until the end of the 80′s. Any business that catered to the needs of Baby Boomers was in the right place at the right time.
And now Baby Boomers are reaching retirement age. The first of them turned 65 in 2010. This new wave is now beginning to crash on the shore and will peak around 2023.
It is obvious to all who care to look that we are witnessing a pension tsunami of historic magnitude. Even if the economy was in good shape the pension system would not be able to withstand the numbers of new retirees. And we are NOT in good shape:
- Government debt has become bloated to the point of being unsustainable.
- State and local government pension plans are hopelessly underfunded.
- Dozens of large corporate pension plans have either collapsed or are on the verge of collapsing.
- Social Security is now a complete financial disaster, a giant Ponzi scheme.
- Unemployment figures are now at levels not seen since the Great Depression (when you actually include all the people out of work)
- And, nearly half of all Americans have nothing saved up for retirement.
There is simply no way that we can keep all of the financial promises made to the Baby Boomer generation. The crumbling US economy will not be able to support the comfortable retirement of tens of millions of new senior citizens. The truth is that we are all going to have to start fundamentally changing the way that we think about our golden years.
So my question to you is "Do you have a PLAN B?" Even if you are not a Baby Boomer it is clear that depending on a pension plan for your financial security is NOT an option if it ever was anyways. You have to create your own home business.
It has been a double whammy for the average worker. Twenty years of free trade, globalization, offshoring and outsourcing has lost America 8.5 million good paying jobs and 42,400 businesses.
And now for the icing on the cake. For most of us there will be no retirement.
Between 1945 - 1964 almost 80,000,000 Baby Boomers were born in the US. As this wave traveled through life it has had a profound influence on society and the economy, from the building of schools and the rise of children's toy manufacturers in the 1950′s, to the student riots of the 60′s, to the sustained housing boom that started in the late 70′s and continued until the end of the 80′s. Any business that catered to the needs of Baby Boomers was in the right place at the right time.
And now Baby Boomers are reaching retirement age. The first of them turned 65 in 2010. This new wave is now beginning to crash on the shore and will peak around 2023.
It is obvious to all who care to look that we are witnessing a pension tsunami of historic magnitude. Even if the economy was in good shape the pension system would not be able to withstand the numbers of new retirees. And we are NOT in good shape:
- Government debt has become bloated to the point of being unsustainable.
- State and local government pension plans are hopelessly underfunded.
- Dozens of large corporate pension plans have either collapsed or are on the verge of collapsing.
- Social Security is now a complete financial disaster, a giant Ponzi scheme.
- Unemployment figures are now at levels not seen since the Great Depression (when you actually include all the people out of work)
- And, nearly half of all Americans have nothing saved up for retirement.
There is simply no way that we can keep all of the financial promises made to the Baby Boomer generation. The crumbling US economy will not be able to support the comfortable retirement of tens of millions of new senior citizens. The truth is that we are all going to have to start fundamentally changing the way that we think about our golden years.
So my question to you is "Do you have a PLAN B?" Even if you are not a Baby Boomer it is clear that depending on a pension plan for your financial security is NOT an option if it ever was anyways. You have to create your own home business.
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